Update shared on 28 Nov 2025
Fair value Increased 7.50%Dave's fair value estimate has been raised from $285 to $306.38. Analysts cite de-risked credit concerns, stabilized data pricing, and expectations for growth from new products and improved financing efficiency as reasons for the adjustment.
Analyst Commentary
Bullish and cautious perspectives both emerged in recent research following recent developments for Dave. Analysts provided a balanced review, outlining factors that are driving the company's updated valuation as well as areas that may warrant continued attention.
Bullish Takeaways- Analysts see major credit concerns around Dave's Q2 results as addressed, which reduces uncertainty and supports a higher fair value estimate.
- Stabilization in data pricing, particularly after recent ripple effects involving external partners, is helping to improve margins.
- Forward-looking commentary highlights the potential for new product launches, scheduled for 2026, as a possible catalyst for incremental growth.
- Recent refinements in Dave's financing strategy are expected to increase capital efficiency, which may benefit overall profitability and execution.
- Despite recent improvements, analyst forecasts for Dave remain relatively conservative both in the near term and over the next few years, reflecting some ongoing caution regarding execution.
- The pace and impact of new product rollouts, while promising, are not yet proven until there are tangible contributions to revenue growth.
- Broader market uncertainties and unforeseen changes in partner relationships or credit trends could still present challenges to maintaining an expanded valuation.
What's in the News
- Dave Inc. raised earnings guidance for fiscal year 2025, now expecting GAAP operating revenues of $544 million to $547 million, up from prior guidance of $505 million to $515 million (Key Developments).
- Full implementation of CashAI v5.5, the company's latest AI-driven underwriting engine, nearly doubles the product's feature set. This upgrade is expected to expand access to ExtraCash, improve credit performance, and boost gross profit starting in the fourth quarter (Key Developments).
- The company completed the buyback period from August 13 to September 30, 2025, with no shares repurchased under the previously announced program (Key Developments).
Valuation Changes
- Fair Value Estimate has increased from $285 to $306.38, reflecting improved expectations for the company's outlook.
- Discount Rate has risen slightly, moving from 7.72% to 7.87%. This indicates a marginally higher required return by analysts.
- Revenue Growth assumptions have been raised noticeably, from 15.96% to 18.28%.
- Net Profit Margin projection has improved significantly, rising from 19.27% to 23.99%.
- Future P/E Ratio has fallen from 36.20x to 27.61x. This suggests increased earnings expectations relative to price.
Disclaimer
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