Update shared on 05 Nov 2025
Fair value Decreased 0.66%Light & Wonder's analyst price target was revised downward to $105.85 from $106.55, as analysts cite increased challenges to meeting core EBITDA targets along with concerns over future cash flow and leverage.
Analyst Commentary
Bullish Takeaways- The revised fiscal 2025 EBITDA guidance points to growth, particularly with the inclusion of Grover. This could help offset challenges in the core business.
- Bullish analysts note that the company is taking steps to proactively manage its financial targets and adjust expectations. These actions may improve the credibility of future guidance.
- Continued focus on strengthening operational execution is seen as a positive for long-term earnings stability.
- There are concerns about the company achieving its original $1.4B EBITDA target. The new guidance range suggests that reaching these milestones may be more difficult than previously anticipated.
- Bearish analysts highlight that integrating new segments like Grover adds complexity. This raises execution risk as the company works to meet revised financial goals.
- Concerns remain regarding free cash flow generation and leverage ratios. Some analysts warn that these factors could limit near-term valuation upside.
- The reduction in price targets signals reduced confidence in the company's ability to deliver rapid growth or outperform sector peers in the current environment.
What's in the News
- Light & Wonder provided an update on the Nevada Court’s recent ruling regarding ongoing litigation with Aristocrat. The Court granted Aristocrat’s renewed motion for discovery of certain math models related to Light & Wonder hold and spin games released since 2021. The litigation process will continue into 2026. (Lawsuits & Legal Issues)
- The company announced its intention to delist its shares from Nasdaq and shift to a sole primary listing on the ASX. The delisting is expected to be effective prior to the open of trading on November 13, 2025, with full ASX transition by November 14, 2025. (Delistings)
- Light & Wonder signed a global distribution deal with Gaming Corps, making all of Gaming Corps’ game engines available via the Light & Wonder content marketplace, which now hosts over 6,700 titles and supports more than five billion game rounds monthly. (Client Announcements)
Valuation Changes
- Consensus Analyst Price Target: Decreased slightly from $106.55 to $105.85.
- Discount Rate: Declined modestly from 10.57% to 10.33%.
- Revenue Growth: Eased fractionally from 7.84% to 7.67%.
- Net Profit Margin: Reduced from 17.52% to 16.82%.
- Future P/E increased slightly from 14.77x to 15.25x.
Disclaimer
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