Update shared on 30 Nov 2025
Fair value Increased 3.53%The analyst consensus price target for Luckin Coffee has risen from $48.24 to $49.95, as analysts cite strong store growth and continued profitability in a rapidly expanding Chinese coffee market.
Analyst Commentary
Bullish Takeaways- Bullish analysts highlight Luckin Coffee's consistent outperformance within China's rapidly growing coffee sector, noting that it is now the largest coffee chain in the country by store count.
- Recent price target increases are supported by expectations of sustained net profit growth of at least 20% per year, which is attributed to robust expansion and operational execution.
- Luckin Coffee's market positioning is favored within the competitive "bubble and brew" category. Some analysts view it as one of the top picks due to its innovative business model and brand strength.
- Analysts believe the company is well-positioned to capture rising coffee consumption trends in China, which supports a higher valuation relative to peers.
- Bearish analysts remain cautious about the sector's intense competition, which could limit pricing power and margin expansion.
- There are concerns about the sustainability of Luckin’s rapid store growth and the potential for market saturation as competitors aggressively expand their own footprints.
- Uncertainty in macroeconomic conditions and changing consumer preferences present ongoing risks to long-term growth forecasts and execution.
Valuation Changes
- Consensus Analyst Price Target: Increased from $48.24 to $49.95, reflecting a modest rise in perceived company value.
- Discount Rate: Rose slightly from 9.08% to 9.12%, suggesting a marginal increase in risk or cost of capital assumptions.
- Revenue Growth: Declined from 20.58% to 18.48%, indicating tempered expectations for top-line expansion.
- Net Profit Margin: Decreased slightly from 9.39% to 9.00%, signaling a small reduction in anticipated profitability.
- Future P/E: Eased from 21.53x to 21.27x, pointing to a minor adjustment in market valuation based on forward earnings.
Disclaimer
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