Update shared on 19 Nov 2025
Fair value Increased 0.36%Shake Shack's analyst price target was modestly raised to $114.36, as analysts note gradual improvements in revenue growth, profit margin, and a balanced risk/reward outlook despite ongoing near-term challenges in the fast casual dining space.
Analyst Commentary
Recent analyst updates present a nuanced view on Shake Shack's outlook, with both encouraging developments and notable headwinds shaping sentiment on the stock.
Bullish Takeaways
- Bullish analysts view Shake Shack as having a compelling story for margin expansion and accelerating development. This supports confidence in long-term growth.
- Same-store sales performance and increased marketing efforts are seen as effective strategies for driving customer traffic, even in a challenging environment.
- Expectations for future financial performance have been recalibrated, positioning the stock with a more balanced risk and reward following recent selloffs.
- Despite the company trading near an all-time low multiple, analysts maintain that Shake Shack’s strategic initiatives support its valuation case going forward.
Bearish Takeaways
- Some bearish analysts note that recent demand in the fast casual sector weakened, particularly with visible slowing in September. This signals near-term challenges for Shake Shack.
- There are ongoing risks to same-store sales growth, which means continued vigilance is necessary regarding execution and consumer demand trends.
- Conservative revisions to price targets reflect uncertainty around sustained margin improvement and traffic gains in a soft operating environment.
What's in the News
- President Trump is expected to sign an order reducing tariffs on beef, tomatoes, coffee, and bananas. The aim is to lower grocery costs. This move could impact several publicly traded foodservice companies, including Shake Shack (Bloomberg).
- Truist reduced Shake Shack's price target to $146 from $156 but maintained a Buy rating. The firm cited continued margin expansion and development despite challenging market conditions (Truist).
- Shake Shack has partnered with Union MAK Corporation to open its first location in Hawaii on Oahu in 2027. The restaurant will feature locally inspired menu items and artwork (Company Announcement).
- For the full year 2025, Shake Shack forecasts total revenue of approximately $1.45 billion. The company is also pursuing ongoing initiatives targeting low single-digit sales growth and continued expansion (Company Guidance).
Valuation Changes
- Consensus Analyst Price Target has risen slightly from $113.95 to $114.36.
- Discount Rate has fallen marginally, decreasing from 8.83% to 8.81%.
- Revenue Growth expectations have increased a bit, going from 14.85% to 14.88%.
- Net Profit Margin has edged up from 5.40% to 5.41%.
- Future P/E ratio is up slightly, moving from 52.25x to 52.33x.
Disclaimer
AnalystConsensusTarget is a tool utilizing a Large Language Model (LLM) that ingests data on consensus price targets, forecasted revenue and earnings figures, as well as the transcripts of earnings calls to produce qualitative analysis. The narratives produced by AnalystConsensusTarget are general in nature and are based solely on analyst data and publicly-available material published by the respective companies. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in nature. Simply Wall St has no position in the company(s) mentioned. Simply Wall St may provide the securities issuer or related entities with website advertising services for a fee, on an arm's length basis. These relationships have no impact on the way we conduct our business, the content we host, or how our content is served to users. The price targets and estimates used are consensus data, and do not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that AnalystConsensusTarget's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.