Update shared on 25 Nov 2025
Fair value Decreased 7.98%Analysts have lowered the average price target for United Parks & Resorts by about $4, now projecting $47.18 per share. They cite weaker demand trends, conservative estimates following earnings misses, and ongoing uncertainty in the theme park consumer outlook.
Analyst Commentary
Analyst reactions to United Parks & Resorts' latest results remain mixed, reflecting diverging views on management credibility, valuation, and growth prospects. Updated price targets and forward-looking statements from several firms highlight both optimistic and cautious perspectives within the market.
Bullish Takeaways- Bullish analysts point to significant operating leverage and profitability potential. They cite recent structural improvements in guest monetization and cost controls as positive factors.
- The addition of new park development in key regions, particularly Orlando, is expected to drive incremental demand and support the company's efforts to regain international visitation.
- Some analysts see current valuations as excessively low, with shares trading at historically discounted multiples relative to revised forecasts.
- Initiations of coverage with Buy ratings highlight ongoing confidence in the business outlook and recovery trajectory over the long term.
- Bearish analysts are concerned about recent earnings misses and a perceived deterioration in the theme park consumer, which raises questions about near- and medium-term demand trends.
- Updated models incorporate more conservative estimates. This reflects reduced confidence in management execution and the ability to achieve prior growth targets.
- Several firms have cited lost management credibility as a risk. Aggressive downward revisions are seen as implying lingering uncertainty in leadership's ability to steer a turnaround.
- Lowered price targets, especially among major institutions such as JPMorgan, reinforce an overall cautious outlook on shares given the present environment.
What's in the News
- James Mikolaichik resigned as Chief Financial Officer effective November 15, 2025. He was succeeded on an interim basis by Senior Vice President of Finance James W. Forrester, Jr. (Key Developments)
- Completion of share repurchase programs, including the buyback of 9,090,000 shares for $467.42 million announced March 27, 2024, and 4,463,409 shares for $231.51 million announced August 4, 2022 (Key Developments)
- United Parks & Resorts Inc. was added to the S&P 1000, S&P 600, S&P 600 Consumer Discretionary Sector, and S&P Composite 1500 indices (Key Developments)
Valuation Changes
- Consensus Analyst Price Target has fallen from $51.27 to $47.18 per share, reflecting a more cautious outlook.
- Discount Rate has risen slightly, moving from 11.46% to 11.66%.
- Revenue Growth expectations have moderated, now at 2.40% compared to the previous 2.73% forecast.
- Net Profit Margin is expected to decline modestly, from 14.75% down to 14.17%.
- Future P/E multiple has decreased from 14.59x to 13.67x. This change indicates lowered growth and earnings expectations.
Disclaimer
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