LVS: Singapore Performance And Capital Returns Will Drive Upside Potential

Analysts have lifted their fair value estimate for Las Vegas Sands from approximately $65 to $78, citing a higher Street price target of $70, stronger than expected Q3 performance in Singapore and resilient Macau trends, and improved profitability supported by new promotional and marketing strategies.

Analyst Commentary

Bullish analysts have become increasingly constructive on Las Vegas Sands, highlighting a combination of strong execution in Singapore, resilient trends in Macau and a more favorable risk reward profile following the recent share pullback.

Recent research notes emphasize that the latest quarter out of Marina Bay Sands was not only ahead of expectations but also points to structurally higher profitability as new promotional and marketing strategies gain traction, supporting upward revisions to earnings forecasts and fair value estimates.

At the same time, while Macau market data around Golden Week was mixed, Las Vegas Sands specific performance was viewed as better than feared, reinforcing the view that the company is gaining share and managing volatility effectively across its key properties.

JPMorgan has been at the forefront of this more optimistic stance. The bank lifted its price target twice in short succession, first to $60 from $56 alongside an upgrade to Overweight and more recently to $70. This underscores confidence in both the near term recovery and the longer term cash flow profile of the business.

These moves have contributed to a rising Street price target and helped bridge what bullish analysts see as a disconnect between the current share price and the embedded value of Las Vegas Sands premium assets, particularly its Singapore exposure.

Bullish Takeaways

• Successive price target increases, including JPMorgan's move to $70, signal growing conviction that Las Vegas Sands earnings power is underappreciated and that upside to current valuation remains.
• Upgrades to Overweight frame the recent share pullback as an attractive entry point, with bullish analysts arguing that the risk reward has improved as fundamentals continue to strengthen.
• Outperformance in Singapore, coupled with resilient Macau results that were better than feared, supports a narrative of consistent execution across regions and a path to higher, more durable margins.
• The implied market value of the Singapore asset base is viewed as too low relative to internal estimates, suggesting meaningful re rating potential as investors recalibrate their growth and cash flow expectations.

What's in the News

• Las Vegas Sands declared a $0.20 increase to its recurring annual common stock dividend for calendar 2026, lifting the payout to $1.20 per share, or $0.30 per quarter (company announcement).
• The company reported that between July 1 and September 30, 2025 it repurchased about 9.2 million shares for $500 million, completing a total of roughly 121.9 million shares bought back for $6.04 billion under its long running program (company filing).
• On October 21, 2025 Las Vegas Sands expanded its remaining share repurchase authorization to $2 billion and extended the buyback program through November 3, 2027, indicating a continued focus on capital returns (company announcement).
• Macau is bracing for its fourth tropical storm in five weeks, adding near term weather related risk to visitation and trading sentiment for operators including Las Vegas Sands (Macau Business).
• Cboe Global is preparing a new prediction markets platform that will initially avoid sports related contracts, underscoring growing regulatory interest in products that blur the line between trading and gambling for companies such as Las Vegas Sands (Bloomberg).

Valuation Changes

• Fair Value Estimate raised meaningfully from approximately $65.46 to $78.11 per share, reflecting stronger expected cash generation and asset quality.
• Discount Rate increased slightly from about 8.96 percent to 9.24 percent, incorporating a modestly higher perceived risk profile.
• Revenue Growth nudged higher from roughly 8.21 percent to 8.48 percent annually, signaling incrementally better top line expectations.
• Net Profit Margin lifted notably from around 18.87 percent to 21.36 percent, indicating improved operating leverage and profitability assumptions.
• Future P/E reduced from about 19.73x to 17.33x, implying a more conservative multiple even as earnings forecasts move higher.