Update shared on 09 Dec 2025
Narrative Update on Life Time Group Holdings
Analysts have nudged their price target for Life Time Group Holdings slightly higher to approximately $40.00 per share, citing modestly stronger long term revenue growth expectations that more than offset a marginally higher discount rate and slightly lower projected profit margins.
What's in the News
- Plans announced for a new 85,000 square foot athletic country club at 175 Third Street in the Gowanus Wharf development in Brooklyn, featuring a year round rooftop beach club, extensive recovery and longevity services, coworking lounge space, and advanced technology enabled wellness programming (Key Developments).
- Nationwide rollout of CTR, a high energy, Pilates inspired reformer workout, now in 10 clubs with 18 more locations coming by year end and a target of more than 60 locations by the end of 2026, signaling continued investment in small group training innovation (Key Developments).
- Full year 2025 guidance raised, with revenue now expected at $2,978 million to $2,988 million and net income at $304 million to $306 million, reflecting stronger operating performance expectations (Key Developments).
- Groundbreaking of Life Time Living Paradise Valley, a 327 unit luxury residential project integrated with a new 92,000 square foot athletic country club in Phoenix, advancing the company’s wellness focused residential strategy (Key Developments).
- Opening of Life Time Prudential Center in Boston, a nearly 60,000 square foot urban athletic country club designed as a combined movement, recovery, work, and social hub in the Back Bay area (Key Developments).
Valuation Changes
- Fair Value Estimate remained unchanged at approximately $39.91 per share, indicating no net impact from the updated assumptions.
- Discount Rate increased very slightly from 10.14% to 10.15%, reflecting a marginally higher required return.
- Revenue Growth assumption rose slightly from 10.40% to 10.45%, signaling a modestly more optimistic long term growth outlook.
- Net Profit Margin expectation edged down slightly from 11.78% to 11.76%, implying a small reduction in projected profitability.
- Future P/E multiple remained effectively unchanged at 29.56x, suggesting virtually no change in the valuation multiple applied to forward earnings.
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