Update shared on04 Sep 2025
Driven by strong same-store sales and margin improvements at Chili’s, but tempered by concerns over difficult comps and sustainability of recent momentum, the consensus analyst price target for Brinker International remained unchanged at $179.
Analyst Commentary
- Markedly strong same-store sales growth at Chili’s (~25%) and robust adjusted EPS expansion (>100%) with significant improvements in restaurant-level margins and de-leveraging of the balance sheet.
- Continuous momentum at Chili’s driving positive investor sentiment, though expectations are elevated and there is caution regarding tougher year-over-year comparisons and skepticism around sustained positive traffic and comps guidance into FY26.
- The overall restaurant industry seeing improved demand, particularly among middle and upper-income consumers, while input costs remain mainly benign, despite lingering policy risks.
- Analyses suggest Chili’s is positioned to continue gaining market share, capitalizing on its scale advantages in a fragmented category and outperforming the broader full-service restaurant industry.
- Bullish analysts have increased long-term growth rate assumptions due to a proven operational playbook that is expected to support durable same-restaurant sales gains.
What's in the News
- Brinker International provided fiscal 2026 guidance, expecting total revenues between $5.60 billion and $5.70 billion, and non-GAAP net income per diluted share of $9.90–$10.50.
- The company announced an increase in its equity buyback plan, raising total authorization by $400 million to $4.97 billion, with $507 million remaining authorized.
- No shares were repurchased from March 27 to June 25, with the cumulative buyback at 131.77 million shares for $4.47 billion under the long-standing program.
- Brinker International was removed from multiple Russell value and small-cap indices, including the Russell 2500, 2000, and 3000 Value Benchmarks and associated indices.
Valuation Changes
Summary of Valuation Changes for Brinker International
- The Consensus Analyst Price Target remained effectively unchanged, at $179.00.
- The Consensus Revenue Growth forecasts for Brinker International remained effectively unchanged, at 4.7% per annum.
- The Net Profit Margin for Brinker International remained effectively unchanged, at 9.12%.
Disclaimer
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