Update shared on04 Sep 2025
CAVA Group’s analyst price target remained unchanged at $92.21 as near-term comp sales softness and lowered guidance weighed on sentiment, but analysts remain confident in the brand’s long-term positioning and recovery potential.
Analyst Commentary
- Q2 same-store sales growth and comps were significantly below expectations, with management lowering full-year and 2025 same-store sales guidance due to macro headwinds, difficult comparisons, and the impact of newer stores entering the comp base.
- Bullish analysts view the recent pullback in shares as an overreaction, emphasizing that the comp sales miss is largely temporary and not reflective of structural issues with the brand, with comps expected to recover in upcoming quarters.
- Company continues to outperform on EBITDA and is experiencing strong new store ramp and expansion, supporting confidence in the brand’s long-term outlook and potential for category leadership in Mediterranean fast casual.
- Near-term valuation pressure is anticipated due to negative comps from lapping specific menu items (e.g., steak) and underperformance from newer stores in Year 2; however, strong performance from new units in Year 1 is seen as a positive indicator.
- Bearish analysts caution that robust valuation remains at risk amid softer sales momentum and recalibrated guidance, but consensus suggests any negative revisions are largely priced into the stock following the significant year-to-date decline.
What's in the News
- CAVA Group lowered full-year 2025 same restaurant sales growth guidance to 4.0%-6.0%, down from 6.0%-8.0%, while maintaining restaurant level profit margin expectations.
- Opened first Pittsburgh and Michigan locations, expanding total footprint to 28 states and the District of Columbia, with plans to reach at least 1,000 restaurants by 2032 and targeting at least 17% new restaurant growth in 2025.
- Continued community engagement through meal donations and fundraising at new openings, supporting local causes and food security.
- Launched the limited-edition Hot Harissa Meal and a debut line of collectible blind-bag plushies, available exclusively in-restaurant.
Valuation Changes
Summary of Valuation Changes for CAVA Group
- The Consensus Analyst Price Target remained effectively unchanged, at $92.21.
- The Discount Rate for CAVA Group remained effectively unchanged, at 8.53%.
- The Net Profit Margin for CAVA Group remained effectively unchanged, at 6.67%.
Disclaimer
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