Update shared on 02 Dec 2025
Analysts have lowered their price targets for CAVA Group, with the average target now down approximately $10 to $20 per share. They cite weaker same-store sales, softer consumer demand, and broader macroeconomic pressures weighing on growth expectations.
Analyst Commentary
Recent Street research highlights a mix of optimism and caution among analysts as they adjust their outlooks for CAVA Group. The following summarizes the main bullish and bearish themes emerging from recent price target revisions and earnings commentary.
Bullish Takeaways
- Bullish analysts continue to point to growing consumer adoption of Mediterranean cuisine as a structural driver of potential long-term growth.
- Several analysts note strengthening brand awareness, positioning CAVA as a leader within the fast casual segment despite recent headwinds.
- Some firms see the current share price as offering an attractive entry point based on CAVA’s improving unit economics and expanding store footprint.
- The stock remains rated Outperform or Buy by select analysts, reflecting confidence in the company’s execution and medium-term opportunities even as near-term metrics soften.
Bearish Takeaways
- Bearish analysts emphasize that recent quarterly results missed consensus targets, particularly in same-store sales growth and earnings.
- There is concern that consumer demand is softening, with same-store sales trends remaining volatile and discretionary spending under pressure.
- Broader macroeconomic uncertainties and consumer headwinds are expected to impact results into the fourth quarter and fiscal 2025. These factors may create challenges for sustaining momentum.
- Some remain cautious on near-term valuation due to reduced growth outlooks and lower guidance for key metrics such as EBITDA and traffic growth.
What's in the News
- President Trump is expected to reduce tariffs on beef, coffee, and other goods. This move could impact grocery prices and companies in the restaurant sector, including CAVA Group (Bloomberg).
- CAVA announced the launch of its first-ever merch store, The CAVA Shop, offering branded apparel and accessories for fans.
- The company lowered its full-year 2025 guidance, now expecting same-restaurant sales growth of 3.0% to 4.0% and profit margins slightly below previous targets.
- CAVA continues its rapid expansion, with a new restaurant opening in Miami's Brickell neighborhood and ongoing growth plans across the country.
Valuation Changes
- Fair Value: Unchanged and remains at $67.89 per share.
- Discount Rate: Decreased slightly from 8.42% to 8.41%.
- Revenue Growth: Stable at approximately 20.03% year-over-year.
- Net Profit Margin: Nearly flat, holding at 5.57%.
- Future P/E: Improved, declining from 95.25x to 92.86x. This reflects a modestly more favorable valuation.
Disclaimer
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