BYD: Digital Gaming Caution And Share Repurchases Will Shape Future Return Profile

Analysts have nudged their price target on Boyd Gaming slightly higher to about $92 from about $91.80, citing solid underlying fundamentals and an attractive valuation profile, even as they adopt a more cautious outlook on digital gaming growth.

Analyst Commentary

Bullish Takeaways

• Bullish analysts highlight that the recent price target increases, into the mid to upper $90s range, still leave room for upside relative to current trading levels. This supports the view that the shares remain attractively valued.
• They point to solid underlying fundamentals, including resilient regional casino performance and disciplined cost control, as evidence that Boyd can continue to deliver steady earnings growth even if macro conditions soften.
• While digital gaming is expected to capture a significant portion of future industry growth, bullish analysts argue that Boyd is positioned to participate in this trend without overextending its balance sheet or diluting returns from its core brick and mortar operations.
• Recent positive revisions are framed as confirmation that prior expectations were too conservative. Analysts suggest that continued execution on capital allocation and margin management could drive further estimate and target upgrades.

Bearish Takeaways

• Bearish analysts caution that a neutral stance on digital gaming growth implies limited near term upside from that segment, especially given heightened competitive and regulatory pressures across key markets.
• There is concern that a greater share of industry growth accruing to digital channels could compress returns for traditional casino assets over time, which could challenge Boyd’s ability to sustain its historical growth rates.
• Some remain wary that recent price target increases may already reflect much of the near term operational improvement. This leaves the risk of multiple compression if growth in digital or regional markets underwhelms.
• Execution risk around balancing investments between digital initiatives and core properties is also highlighted, with bearish analysts noting that missteps on marketing, promotions or technology spending could weigh on margins and valuation.

What's in the News

• Cboe Global plans to launch a federally regulated prediction markets platform that will initially exclude sports related products, highlighting growing competition and financial market interest around gambling style event contracts that reference companies such as Boyd Gaming (Bloomberg)
• Boyd Gaming completed a major share repurchase tranche between July 1, 2025 and September 30, 2025, buying back 1,903,611 shares, or 2.36 percent of shares outstanding, for 160 million dollars (company disclosure)
• Since announcing its buyback on October 26, 2021, Boyd has cumulatively repurchased 35,199,044 shares, representing 36.76 percent of its shares, for a total of approximately 2.25 billion dollars, reinforcing management’s focus on shareholder returns (company disclosure)

Valuation Changes

• Fair Value: nudged slightly higher to approximately $92.00 from $91.80, reflecting a modest upward adjustment in intrinsic value estimates.
• Discount Rate: risen slightly from about 9.27 percent to about 9.34 percent, implying a marginally higher required return and risk premium.
• Revenue Growth: revised upward, with the expected decline moderating from roughly negative 1.28 percent to about negative 0.49 percent, indicating a less severe contraction outlook.
• Net Profit Margin: edged down from around 5.40 percent to about 5.27 percent, signaling a small expected compression in profitability.
• Future P/E: increased marginally from roughly 35.68x to about 35.83x, suggesting a slightly higher valuation multiple on forward earnings.