BROS: Store Expansion Will Sustain Demand Into 2026 Despite Margin Pressures

The average analyst price target for Dutch Bros was lowered slightly from $78.06 to $75.61. Analysts cited ongoing margin pressures and cautious consumer spending, despite the company’s solid revenue and profit performance.

Analyst Commentary

Analyst perspectives on Dutch Bros reflect a mix of optimism about long-term fundamentals and caution around near-term market dynamics and consumer trends.

Bullish Takeaways

• Bullish analysts highlight that same-store sales growth is holding up well, with recent comps and total revenue results exceeding market expectations.
• There is growing confidence in Dutch Bros' brand resilience and the company’s ability to sustain demand despite economic headwinds, supported by a differentiated menu and customer experience.
• Analysts remain upbeat on the company’s store expansion plan and continued momentum in traffic. Further upside is seen as achievable through 2026.
• Valuation remains attractive for some, who view the company's financials and outlook as consistent and appealing within the fast-casual and restaurant sector.

Bearish Takeaways

• Some analysts have trimmed price targets due to ongoing margin pressures, indicating that lower profitability could persist in the near term.
• Cautious sentiment is emerging as consumer spending across the broader restaurant sector remains lackluster and appears to be deteriorating into early Q4.
• Reduced EBITDA guidance for the upcoming quarter has created some uncertainty. Several see these outlooks as conservative but justified given macroeconomic concerns.
• Performance in the quick service segment remains mixed, with visible slowdowns in September suggesting uneven demand patterns.

What's in the News

• Dutch Bros Inc. opened 38 new shops, 34 of which were company-operated, across 17 states in the third quarter of 2025. The company plans to open 160 total system shops in 2025 and is targeting around 175 shop openings in 2026. This indicates strong confidence in its expansion trajectory. (Key Developments)
• Dutch Bros raised its full-year 2025 earnings guidance. Projected total revenues are now expected to range from approximately $1.61 billion to $1.615 billion, with same shop sales growth forecast at about 5 percent. (Key Developments)
• LRE & Co announced that Dutch Bros has signed a lease for a new build-to-suit drive-thru coffee shop in Folsom, California, expected to open in the second quarter of 2026. The location will feature dual drive-thru lanes and walk-up service windows to support high anticipated traffic, reflecting the brand's ongoing Sacramento-area expansion. (Key Developments)

Valuation Changes

• Consensus Analyst Price Target has declined from $78.06 to $75.61, reflecting a modest reduction in perceived fair value.
• Discount Rate edged down slightly from 8.49 percent to 8.49 percent, indicating minimal change in risk assessment.
• Revenue Growth outlook has increased from 23.66 percent to 24.26 percent, suggesting improved expectations for future topline expansion.
• Net Profit Margin has improved from 6.99 percent to 7.66 percent, reflecting stronger profitability projections.
• Future P/E ratio has fallen significantly from 80.51x to 66.26x, implying a more attractive forward valuation relative to earnings.