Update shared on 17 Dec 2025
Fair value Decreased 7.50%Analysts have modestly reduced their price target on Accel Entertainment to approximately $14.80 from $16.00, citing expectations for slower revenue growth and compressed profit margins, partially offset by a slightly lower discount rate and higher future valuation multiple assumptions.
What's in the News
- Accel Entertainment completed its share repurchase program announced in November 2021, buying back 16,081,203 shares, or 18.26% of shares outstanding, for a total of $167.47 million (Key Developments).
- In the latest tranche from July 1, 2025 to September 30, 2025, the company repurchased 602,214 shares, representing 0.71% of shares, for $6.77 million (Key Developments).
- Accel Entertainment appointed Brett Summerer as Chief Financial Officer effective September 22, 2025, succeeding acting CFO Mark Phelan, with responsibility for all key finance, reporting, compliance, and capital markets functions (Key Developments).
- Summerer brings more than 25 years of senior finance and operations experience at Kraft Heinz, Corning, General Motors, and most recently as CFO of Verano Holdings, where he led M&A, systems implementations, and built a large finance and IT organization (Key Developments).
Valuation Changes
- Fair Value Estimate lowered modestly from $16.00 to $14.80 per share, reflecting tempered expectations for the business.
- Discount Rate reduced slightly from 10.25% to approximately 10.07%, indicating a marginally lower perceived risk profile or cost of capital.
- Revenue Growth forecast cut meaningfully from about 5.0% to roughly 3.8%, signaling expectations for slower top line expansion.
- Net Profit Margin assumption reduced significantly from about 7.25% to roughly 4.96%, pointing to anticipated margin compression.
- Future P/E multiple increased from roughly 18.0x to about 20.7x, implying a higher valuation placed on expected future earnings.
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