Update shared on 21 Nov 2025
Fair value Decreased 0.12%Red Rock Resorts' consensus price target edged lower by $0.08 to $65.77, as analysts noted ongoing construction disruptions and fully valued shares. However, they continue to see long-term growth potential supported by project expansions and local market strength.
Analyst Commentary
Recent street research on Red Rock Resorts highlights a mix of enthusiasm for the company's growth prospects and caution regarding its current valuation and near-term operational headwinds. Analysts have provided updated ratings and price targets, reflecting both supportive trends and areas of concern.
Bullish Takeaways- Bullish analysts see robust long-term growth potential from Red Rock Resorts' development pipeline, including recent expansion announcements and ongoing renovations.
- Consensus among optimistic analysts is that incremental EBITDA opportunities could total several hundred million dollars over the next few years. This is viewed as supporting further upside for the shares.
- Momentum in local markets remains strong. Las Vegas locals' demand and competitive advantages are cited as key strengths, even during periods of construction disruption.
- Recent price target increases were supported by steady gaming and non-gaming revenue growth, as well as higher spend per visit in regional markets.
- Several analysts flagged that the shares currently appear fully valued, with limited near-term upside barring a significant pullback.
- Ongoing construction and renovation activity, particularly at flagship properties, continues to create headwinds and introduces execution risk to consensus estimates through 2026.
- Some on the street prefer to wait for a more opportunistic entry point and have cited potential for share price volatility tied to construction progress and external market developments.
- There remains some concern that local market strength could be tested if broader gaming industry weakness emerges or if visitation trends deteriorate from current levels.
What's in the News
- Jefferies upgraded Red Rock Resorts to Buy, highlighting a strong project pipeline and a $385 million expansion of the Durango property (Jefferies analyst note).
- Stifel raised Red Rock Resorts' price target to $63, noting that concerns about local market weakness are likely overstated. The firm also suggests a more cautious near-term approach (Stifel research).
- Red Rock Resorts was added to the S&P 1000, S&P 600 Consumer Discretionary Sector, S&P Composite 1500, and S&P 600 indexes (company announcement).
- The company declared a fourth quarter cash dividend of $0.26 per Class A common share, payable December 31, 2025 (company announcement).
- Red Rock Resorts increased its equity buyback plan by $300 million, bringing total authorization to $900 million through December 2027 (company announcement).
Valuation Changes
- Consensus Analyst Price Target edged lower from $65.85 to $65.77, a marginal decrease.
- Discount Rate increased slightly from 9.83% to 9.84%. This reflects a minor adjustment in risk outlook.
- Revenue Growth forecasts rose modestly from 3.33% to 3.43%.
- Net Profit Margin slipped slightly from 12.14% to 12.13%.
- Future P/E decreased minimally from 18.94x to 18.88x. This indicates a small shift in expected earnings valuation.
Disclaimer
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