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NDLS: Raised 2025 Outlook And New Menu Initiatives Will Support Share Upside

Digital Ordering And Menu Updates Will Spur Traffic Recovery Despite Margin Risks

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NDLS
AnalystConsensusTarget
Not Invested
Published 13 Apr 2025

Update shared on 17 Dec 2025

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AnalystConsensusTarget's Fair Value
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1Y
-7.4%
7D
-21.2%

Analysts have trimmed their price target on Noodles modestly, citing a slightly weaker long term profit margin outlook that outweighs largely unchanged fair value assumptions.

What's in the News

  • Galloway Capital Partners sent a public letter to Noodles & Company management arguing the shares are materially undervalued and urging the board to explore all options to enhance shareholder value, including its recommended strategies (Key Developments)
  • Noodles & Company raised full year 2025 guidance, now expecting total revenue of 492 million dollars to 495 million dollars and comparable restaurant sales growth of 3.6 percent to 4.2 percent (Key Developments)
  • The company launched a limited time Holiday Crispy made with SNICKERS, priced at 3.50 dollars and positioned as a seasonal treat for the busy December period (Key Developments)
  • Noodles & Company introduced Chili Garlic Ramen, a limited time, brothless, spicy ramen inspired by social media trends, first for Rewards Members on October 15 and then nationwide on October 17 at 8.95 dollars (Key Developments)

Valuation Changes

  • Fair Value: Unchanged at 1.75 dollars per share, indicating no adjustment to the core valuation estimate.
  • Discount Rate: Held steady at 12.5 percent, reflecting an unchanged view of the company’s risk profile.
  • Revenue Growth: Adjusted fractionally higher from approximately negative 4.41 percent to negative 4.41 percent, a numerically negligible change with no practical impact on the outlook.
  • Net Profit Margin: Trimmed slightly from about 8.09 percent to 8.07 percent, signaling a modestly more conservative long term profitability assumption.
  • Future P/E: Edged up marginally from roughly 3.57x to 3.58x, reflecting a very small increase in the implied earnings multiple.

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