Update shared on 10 Dec 2025
Fair value Decreased 6.83%Analysts have modestly lowered their price target on Grand Canyon Education from approximately $239 to about $223 per share, citing slightly softer revenue growth assumptions, a marginally higher discount rate, and a lower future P/E multiple, partly offset by improved profit margin expectations.
What's in the News
- Bleecker Street disclosed short positions in several education companies, including Grand Canyon Education, citing sector wide concerns about enrollment fraud and quality of reported metrics (Periodical).
- Grand Canyon Education repurchased 219,369 shares for $39.49 million in the latest quarter, bringing total buybacks under its long running program to 21.3 million shares, or about 55.5% of shares outstanding (Key Developments).
- The company reaffirmed guidance for the fourth quarter of 2025, projecting service revenue of approximately $305 million to $310 million and diluted EPS of $3.07 to $3.18 (Key Developments).
- Full year 2025 guidance calls for service revenue of roughly $1.10 billion to $1.11 billion and diluted EPS between $7.66 and $7.77 (Key Developments).
Valuation Changes
- Fair Value: Reduced modestly from about $239 to approximately $223 per share, reflecting a slightly more conservative outlook.
- Discount Rate: Increased slightly from roughly 7.02% to about 7.15%, implying a marginally higher required return.
- Revenue Growth: Trimmed slightly from around 6.66% to approximately 6.53% annually, indicating a minor softening in top line expectations.
- Net Profit Margin: Raised meaningfully from roughly 23.63% to about 27.71%, signaling improved profitability assumptions.
- Future P/E: Lowered significantly from about 23.0x to roughly 18.7x, pointing to a more conservative valuation multiple applied to future earnings.
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