Update shared on04 Sep 2025
Light & Wonder’s unchanged consensus price target of $108.36 reflects a balance of bearish concerns over the achievability of revised EBITDA targets and free cash flow headwinds, offset by bullish confidence in the core business and limited legal risk from ongoing litigation.
Analyst Commentary
- Bearish analysts lowered their price targets due to concerns that Light & Wonder’s revised fiscal 2025 EBITDA guidance now includes Grover, making it more difficult to achieve the company’s original $1.4B EBITDA target.
- Expectations of increased challenges with free cash flow generation and elevated gearing levels contributed to negative outlook adjustments.
- The recent Nevada district court ruling in the Dragon Train case is considered an incremental positive, as Light & Wonder faces limited financial risk and less immediate threat from trade secret litigation.
- Bullish analysts emphasize that the legal dispute with Aristocrat Leisure is perceived as background noise and financially immaterial to the company’s thesis.
- Optimism from bullish analysts is reflected in elevated price targets, underpinned by continued belief in Light & Wonder’s core business resilience despite external legal challenges.
What's in the News
- Completed repurchase of 6,059,462 shares (6.94%) for $553 million under the buyback plan announced in June 2024.
- Increased equity buyback authorization by $500 million, bringing total authorization to $1.5 billion.
Valuation Changes
Summary of Valuation Changes for Light & Wonder
- The Consensus Analyst Price Target remained effectively unchanged, at $108.36.
- The Consensus Revenue Growth forecasts for Light & Wonder remained effectively unchanged, at 7.5% per annum.
- The Discount Rate for Light & Wonder remained effectively unchanged, at 10.41%.
Disclaimer
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