JACK: Ongoing Turnaround Efforts Will Drive Sequential Sales Improvement Into 2026

Analysts have lowered their price target for Jack in the Box from approximately $23.06 to $20.32. They cite persistent same-store sales pressures, softer industry trends, and the company's revised guidance following the Del Taco divestiture and recent earnings results.

Analyst Commentary

Recent analyst reports provide varied perspectives on Jack in the Box following its Q4 earnings and the announced sale of Del Taco. While the consensus reflects caution due to industry and company-specific headwinds, some optimistic notes remain. Below is a summary of key bullish and bearish takeaways from the latest Street research:

• Bullish analysts note that Jack in the Box’s initial 2026 EBITDA guidance ($225 million to $240 million) for the standalone business aligns with their expectations, offering some confidence in the company's long-term targets.
• The company’s revised guidance reflects proactive adjustments in response to challenges, with management targeting sequential sales improvements and a potential return to positive same-store sales trends by the second half of 2026.
• There are early signs that trends in recent quarters have marginally improved from fiscal Q4 lows, suggesting the potential for gradual recovery as operational initiatives take hold.

• Bearish analysts highlight continued pressure on same-store sales, with full-year projections ranging from a 1% decline to just a 1% increase, underscoring tepid growth prospects and execution risk.
• Margin pressures due to sales deleverage, beef inflation, and increased labor costs, especially in major markets like Chicago, are expected to weigh on profitability heading into 2026.
• Some view the execution of the "Jack on Track" turnaround plan as ambitious given the current industry headwinds and weak traffic trends, raising questions about management’s ability to deliver sustained improvements.
• Despite restructuring efforts, 2026 is widely viewed as a rebuilding year with analysts maintaining cautious or negative outlooks on the company’s valuation and growth trajectory.

What's in the News

• Jack in the Box will maintain a restaurant count of 2,050 to 2,100 in 2026, which includes about 20 new openings and 50 to 100 closures, primarily among franchise locations (Key Developments).
• The company issued 2026 guidance, forecasting same-store sales between a 1% decline and a 1% increase compared to 2025 (Key Developments).
• Jack in the Box completed a $75 million share repurchase program, totaling over 1.2 million shares, or about 6.24% of shares outstanding (Key Developments).
• Two new independent directors were appointed to the Board as part of an agreement with GreenWood Investors. This expands the board to 10 members and forms a Capital Allocation Committee (Key Developments).
• Jack in the Box launched new promotions and limited-time menu items, including the Munch Better Deals lineup, Monster Munchie Meals for Halloween, and an interactive app-based game offering prizes and deals (Key Developments).

Valuation Changes

• Consensus Analyst Price Target: Lowered notably from $23.06 to $20.32. This reflects a more cautious market outlook.
• Discount Rate: Increased slightly from 12.32% to 12.5%, which signals a marginally higher perceived risk.
• Revenue Growth: Declined significantly from +0.44% to -5.96%. This indicates expectations for reduced sales performance.
• Net Profit Margin: Improved modestly from 6.92% to 7.29%, suggesting stronger profitability despite other headwinds.
• Future P/E: Edged higher from 5.94x to 6.19x. This points to a slight increase in valuation relative to expected earnings.