Update shared on 10 Nov 2025
Fair value Increased 2.42%Analysts have increased their price target for H World Group by approximately $1.09 to $46.09, citing modest improvements in projected revenue growth and profitability metrics.
Analyst Commentary
Bullish Takeaways- Bullish analysts highlight modest improvements in projected revenue growth, which supports a higher valuation for H World Group.
- Stable to improving trends within key business segments are viewed as positive indicators for future profitability and operational execution.
- The price target increase reflects optimism that the company can sustain momentum, particularly as broader market conditions stabilize.
- Accentuated performance improvements in certain segments, such as commercial banking and broker/dealer operations, are interpreted as signs of strategic progress and effective management decisions.
- Bearish analysts remain cautious about segments facing headwinds, noting that some areas, like mortgage operations, are experiencing slower volumes that could weigh on overall growth.
- Concerns persist regarding macroeconomic uncertainties that may affect demand and profitability targets in the near term.
- While some segments are improving, the overall pace of recovery is still seen as gradual. This prompts continued skepticism about the rate of sustained earnings growth.
What's in the News
- H World Group announced the signing of three new JI Hotels in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia and Phnom Penh, Cambodia, marking its debut in Malaysia and expanding its asset-light portfolio in Southeast Asia. (Company Announcement)
- The company provided earnings guidance for Q3 2025, projecting revenue growth between 2% and 6%, or 4% to 8% excluding DH. Manachised and franchised revenue growth is expected between 20% and 24% compared to the same quarter in 2024. (Company Guidance)
- The Board approved an ordinary cash dividend of approximately USD 250 million for the first half of 2025, totaling USD 0.081 per ordinary share or USD 0.81 per ADS. Payouts are scheduled for shareholders and ADS holders in September 2025. (Company Announcement)
- H World Group held an Analyst/Investor Day to engage with analysts and investors on the company's latest developments and strategic outlook. (Company Event)
Valuation Changes
- The Fair Value Estimate has risen slightly from $45.01 to $46.09, reflecting a modest increase in expected valuation for H World Group.
- The Discount Rate has fallen marginally from 10.35% to 10.11%, suggesting a slightly lower risk premium applied in updated assessments.
- The Revenue Growth projection has increased slightly from 5.72% to 5.80%, indicating improved expectations for the company's top-line expansion.
- The Net Profit Margin estimate has edged up from 20.24% to 20.71%, pointing to anticipated improvements in overall profitability.
- The Future P/E Ratio has declined minimally from 22.14x to 22.00x, signaling a modestly lower forward earnings multiple being assigned.
Disclaimer
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