Update shared on 11 Nov 2025
Fair value Decreased 0.35%Domino's Pizza's fair value estimate was modestly reduced by analysts to $498.26, reflecting cautious optimism due to mixed sector trends and ongoing menu innovation.
Analyst Commentary
Recent Street research on Domino's Pizza reflects a balance between optimism for the company's growth initiatives and caution regarding market headwinds, resulting in a modest adjustment of price targets across major firms.
Bullish Takeaways
- Bullish analysts point to Domino's sustained same-store sales growth, with the company exceeding U.S. SSS expectations in the latest quarter. This highlights robust execution in a challenging market.
- Menu innovation and value offerings, such as the recent rollout of stuffed crust and premium menu items, are seen as key drivers for continued customer engagement and future sales growth.
- The company's firm guidance for same-store sales growth of at least 3 percent through 2026 and proactive adoption of third-party delivery partnerships bolster confidence in its medium-term targets.
- Despite sector-wide softness, analysts view Domino's management as responsive and proactive in leveraging multiple sales levers to maintain and extend its competitive advantage.
Bearish Takeaways
- Bearish analysts express concerns over softer consumer demand and "choppy" trends in the U.S. restaurant segment, which may impact near-term same-store sales momentum.
- International growth is viewed as challenged, with some firms noting that these headwinds could limit upside to the company's global expansion plans.
- Valuation adjustment reflects concerns over weaker industry data and consumer spending pressures that could weigh on performance ahead of upcoming earnings.
- There is a moderate downside risk anticipated for the near term, prompting more conservative growth assumptions and price target reductions among some firms.
What's in the News
- A new Spicy Chicken Bacon Ranch Pizza will launch on November 10, 2025. It features grilled chicken breast, ranch, smoked bacon, jalapenos, mozzarella, and Buffalo sauce. The pizza will be available for $9.99 as part of the Mix and Match deal. Domino's and Retta are collaborating on new TV ads to promote the launch. (Key Developments)
- Domino's has introduced two new Bread Bite flavors: Cinnamon and Garlic. These additions expand its range of oven-baked menu items and are now included in the Mix and Match deal at $6.99 each for 32-piece orders. (Key Developments)
- Between June 16 and September 7, 2025, the company repurchased 165,778 shares for $74.68 million. This completes a buyback of over one million shares totaling $460.45 million under the plan announced in February 2024. (Key Developments)
Valuation Changes
- Fair Value Estimate: Declined slightly from $500.03 to $498.26, indicating a modest decrease in consensus analyst valuation.
- Discount Rate: Lowered from 9.30 percent to 9.20 percent, reflecting a slightly reduced perceived risk.
- Revenue Growth: Increased marginally from 5.29 percent to 5.43 percent, suggesting a minor rise in expected business expansion.
- Net Profit Margin: Edged down from 13.06 percent to 13.03 percent, showing a very slight compression in anticipated profitability.
- Future P/E Ratio: Increased from 27.37x to 28.05x. This indicates analysts expect a higher earnings multiple going forward.
Disclaimer
AnalystConsensusTarget is a tool utilizing a Large Language Model (LLM) that ingests data on consensus price targets, forecasted revenue and earnings figures, as well as the transcripts of earnings calls to produce qualitative analysis. The narratives produced by AnalystConsensusTarget are general in nature and are based solely on analyst data and publicly-available material published by the respective companies. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in nature. Simply Wall St has no position in the company(s) mentioned. Simply Wall St may provide the securities issuer or related entities with website advertising services for a fee, on an arm's length basis. These relationships have no impact on the way we conduct our business, the content we host, or how our content is served to users. The price targets and estimates used are consensus data, and do not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that AnalystConsensusTarget's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.