DASH: Global Grocery Expansion And Deliveroo Integration Will Drive Shares Higher

We are nudging our DoorDash analyst price target slightly higher to approximately $276 per share, as analysts argue that resilient U.S. marketplace growth, strengthening grocery and retail momentum, and underappreciated returns on stepped-up tech and Deliveroo investments more than offset modestly higher risk and near-term margin pressure.

Analyst Commentary

Recent Street research reflects a broadly constructive stance on DoorDash, with most firms emphasizing enduring growth in the core U.S. restaurant marketplace, improving traction in grocery and retail, and a longer runway from the Deliveroo integration, even as near term profitability comes under pressure.

Bullish Takeaways

• Bullish analysts highlight accelerating U.S. gross order value growth and resilient restaurant demand as evidence that DoorDash can sustain above market expansion in its highest margin segment, supporting premium valuation multiples.
• Several price target increases and Buy initiations cite growing momentum in grocery and retail, with expectations that these currently dilutive verticals will transition from a profit drag to a medium term earnings tailwind as scale and unit economics improve.
• The Deliveroo acquisition is viewed as strategically important for extending DoorDash's local commerce footprint globally, with some models assuming that incremental marketing efficiency and product integration can drive faster growth in 2026 than in 2025.
• Coverage reinstatements at major firms, including Goldman Sachs, frame the risk reward as attractive, arguing that strong execution, a disciplined investment framework, and a favorable competitive position support upside to consensus growth and margin assumptions over time.

Bearish Takeaways

• Bearish analysts stress that stepped up investments in the tech platform, international expansion, and Deliveroo will weigh on EBITDA in the near term, leading to multiple price target cuts despite solid operating trends.
• Some Neutral and Equal Weight views argue that a substantial portion of the bull case, including continued market share gains and margin improvement, is already embedded in the stock price, limiting further valuation re rating without clear upside surprises.
• There is concern that large capex like commitments, including autonomous delivery pilots and broader AI and automation initiatives, could face challenging economics at scale, delaying the timeline to higher returns on invested capital.
• A subset of cautious commentary points to decelerating growth at certain peers and the risk that intensifying competition in grocery delivery and same day logistics could compress take rates or elevate promotional intensity, tempering DoorDash's long term margin expansion narrative.

What's in the News

• Australian food delivery workers could receive a roughly 25% pay increase and new accident insurance protections under a draft deal between Uber Eats, DoorDash and the national transport union, potentially raising DoorDash's labor costs in the market (Reuters).
• Short seller Culper Research disclosed a short position in DoorDash, alleging widespread use of unauthorized contract workers across the platform and calling the scale of the practice unprecedented in U.S. corporate history (Reuters).
• DoorDash publicly rejected Culper Research's short thesis, telling Bloomberg that the report is "demonstrably false," signaling a firm pushback against questions around compliance and workforce vetting (Bloomberg).
• Truist boosted its DoorDash price target to $340 from $326 and reiterated a Buy rating, citing card data showing U.S. gross order value growth running slightly ahead of expectations with year over year acceleration into Q4 (Truist research via wire reports).
• In Australia, the proposed pay agreement is scheduled to go into effect in July if approved, reinforcing ongoing global regulatory and labor scrutiny of gig economy employment models (Reuters).

Valuation Changes

• The fair value estimate per share has risen slightly to approximately $276.41 from $276.17, reflecting a marginally higher intrinsic value assessment.
• The discount rate has increased modestly to about 8.37% from 8.30%, indicating a slightly higher required return and risk assumption.
• The revenue growth forecast has edged down fractionally to roughly 23.89% from 23.91%, implying a virtually unchanged long-term top-line outlook.
• The net profit margin expectation has dipped slightly to around 13.74% from 13.75%, suggesting a minimal reduction in long-run profitability assumptions.
• The future P/E multiple has risen slightly to about 49.6x from 49.4x, reflecting a small increase in the valuation multiple applied to forward earnings.