Update shared on19 Sep 2025
Fair value Decreased 7.73%Cracker Barrel's analyst price target was lowered to $51.14 as backlash over its rebranding and falling store traffic led to a reset in forward guidance and profitability expectations, with interim recovery efforts expected to further pressure near-term earnings.
Analyst Commentary
- Rebranding backlash and negative attention around the company's new logo led to a sharp drop in store traffic and significantly lowered FY2026 revenue guidance.
- Initial FY26 guidance and forward-looking estimates (EBITDA and EPS) were reset well below consensus, reflecting anticipated challenges in same-store sales growth.
- Increased marketing and labor spending is expected in the near term to support recovery efforts and rebuild customer traffic, impacting short-term profitability.
- Despite the Q4 earnings miss, bullish analysts see potential for sales recovery as the Fall Menu marketing resumes and core brand turnaround initiatives remain in place.
- Bearish analysts highlight continued investor caution toward brands with heavier exposure to lower-income consumers and perceive the turnaround momentum as stalled due to ongoing brand perception issues.
What's in the News
- Cracker Barrel's Board authorized a $100 million share repurchase program and provided fiscal 2026 revenue guidance of $3.35–$3.45 billion, projecting a 4%–7% comparable store traffic decline (Key Developments).
- The company launched a fall menu creative campaign and a refreshed brand look, featuring a partnership event with country music artist Jordan Davis to enhance guest experience and visibility (Key Developments).
- Cracker Barrel reversed its decision to implement a new logo after receiving backlash, including criticism from former President Donald Trump and public shareholders (Bloomberg).
- Sardar Biglari, CEO of Steak 'n Shake and a major shareholder, publicly called for the firing of Cracker Barrel's CEO in the wake of the logo controversy (WSJ).
- Cracker Barrel was dropped from the Russell 2000 Defensive, Growth-Defensive, and Value-Defensive Indexes, indicating potential concerns about overall financial performance and market positioning (Key Developments).
Valuation Changes
Summary of Valuation Changes for Cracker Barrel Old Country Store
- The Consensus Analyst Price Target has fallen from $55.43 to $51.14.
- The Future P/E for Cracker Barrel Old Country Store has significantly risen from 19.60x to 25.58x.
- The Net Profit Margin for Cracker Barrel Old Country Store has significantly fallen from 2.40% to 1.69%.
Disclaimer
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