The consensus analyst price target for Cheesecake Factory has decreased by just over $5 to around $60. Analysts cite softer sales trends and persistent macroeconomic challenges impacting growth expectations.

Analyst Commentary

Recent analyst activity reflects a nuanced view of Cheesecake Factory's prospects, with a mix of tempered optimism and caution in light of evolving trends in the restaurant sector. Price target revisions reflect both sector-wide headwinds and evaluations of the company's ability to adapt to a changing macroeconomic environment.

• Bullish analysts highlight Cheesecake Factory's standing in the casual dining space, noting its resilience despite general industry softness and challenging market conditions.
• Some view the company as well positioned to manage a "choppier" macro backdrop, citing strong brand equity and strategic efforts to offset commodity inflation, particularly in areas like chicken and dairy costs.
• There is recognition of consistent consumer spending at the chain, which supports an optimistic outlook for medium-term growth, even as other segments like fast casual see more pronounced slowdowns.

• Bearish analysts point to slower sales trends in the third quarter, with same-store sales coming in below expectations and a visible slowdown in September, which they attribute to broader industry weakness and waning demand.
• Ongoing traffic challenges and softness in fast casual are viewed as persistent issues, with some price targets reflecting only modest growth or demand recovery assumptions into next year.
• Guidance for weaker top-line results and concerns over continued inflationary pressures, especially for beef and selected food items, have driven more cautious expectations for comparable sales and profit margins.
• Macro uncertainties, including elevated youth unemployment and negative consumer sentiment, are seen as ongoing risks that could dampen any rapid recovery in the company's growth trajectory.

What's in the News

• From July 2, 2025 to October 1, 2025, Cheesecake Factory repurchased 18,900 shares for $1.2 million, completing the repurchase of 50,640,118 shares worth $1,637.78 million under its long-standing buyback program (Key Developments).
• The company provided earnings guidance for the fourth quarter of 2025, expecting total revenues between $940 million and $955 million. This represents about a 1% decline from the third quarter trend (Key Developments).
• For the full year 2026, Cheesecake Factory anticipates total revenue growth of approximately 4% to 5% compared to 2025. The company expects improving sales trends as 2026 progresses (Key Developments).

Valuation Changes

• The Fair Value Estimate has decreased from $64.94 to $59.78, reflecting lowered growth and risk assumptions.
• The Discount Rate has increased slightly from 10.52% to 10.61%, suggesting a marginally higher risk perception.
• The Revenue Growth Forecast has declined from 5.94% to 5.30%, signaling softer sales expectations.
• The Net Profit Margin Forecast has improved modestly from 5.68% to 5.73%, indicating slightly better profitability projections.
• The Future P/E Ratio estimate has dropped significantly from 16.28x to 12.04x, reflecting reduced forward earnings expectations.