Update shared on17 Sep 2025
Fair value Increased 1.95%Performance Food Group received an upward price target revision driven by a strong Q4 earnings beat, solid FY26 guidance, improving case growth, robust market share gains, and stable cost inflation, resulting in a new consensus price target of $119.36.
Analyst Commentary
- Strong Q4 earnings beat expectations, with EPS and EBITDA exceeding consensus estimates.
- FY26 guidance described as “solid,” with accelerating market share gains in a challenging macro environment due to the company’s decentralized operating structure.
- Case growth is picking up in Q1, supported by improved industry demand and robust share gains versus peers.
- Improved performance is attributed to strength among middle/upper income customer cohorts and largely benign cost inflation.
- Continued speculation around potential M&A with US Foods, but deal probability seen as decreasing based on recent management comments.
What's in the News
- Performance Food Group has initiated a clean team agreement with US Foods to evaluate regulatory considerations and potential synergies for a possible business combination, with no assurance on the outcome or timing.
- Sachem Head LP has nominated four candidates for election to Performance Food Group’s Board at the upcoming 2025 annual meeting.
- The company provided Q1 fiscal 2026 net sales guidance of $16.6–$16.9 billion and full-year fiscal 2026 guidance of $67–$68 billion.
- Performance Food Group completed the repurchase of 2,290,712 shares for $147.23 million under its buyback plan announced in 2022; no shares were repurchased under the newer buyback announced in May 2025.
- Management indicated an ongoing focus on disciplined M&A, describing a robust deal pipeline and emphasizing a balanced capital allocation strategy in light of recent industry challenges.
Valuation Changes
Summary of Valuation Changes for Performance Food Group
- The Consensus Analyst Price Target remained effectively unchanged, moving only marginally from $117.08 to $119.36.
- The Net Profit Margin for Performance Food Group has risen slightly from 1.12% to 1.15%.
- The Future P/E for Performance Food Group remained effectively unchanged, moving only marginally from 27.73x to 27.55x.
Disclaimer
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