Update shared on15 Aug 2025
Fair value Increased 5.22%Driven by Q4 earnings beats, upward guidance revisions, and accelerating market share gains despite macro uncertainty, analysts have raised Performance Food Group’s consensus price target from $111.55 to $117.36.
Analyst Commentary
- Q4 earnings outperformed expectations, delivering EPS and EBITDA beats, and prompting upward revisions to future guidance.
- Performance Food Group is accelerating market share gains despite a choppy macro environment, supported by its decentralized structure, which enhances customer service.
- Case growth is accelerating into Q1, indicating sustained momentum in operations and demand.
- Overall industry demand has improved, benefiting food distributors; Performance Food stands out versus peers in gaining share.
- Risks remain from macro policy uncertainty and potential M&A activity (notably with US Foods), but management commentary suggests lowered near-term deal probability.
What's in the News
- Issued earnings guidance, expecting first quarter fiscal 2026 net sales of $16.6–$16.9 billion and full year 2026 sales of $67–$68 billion.
- Management reiterated focus on disciplined M&A to drive sustainable growth, with a strong financial position and capital allocation strategy.
- US Foods has expressed takeover interest in Performance Food Group; no certainty a deal will occur.
- Announced a new share repurchase program authorizing up to $500 million through May 2029; prior buybacks totaled $147.23 million since November 2022.
- Provided updated long-term sales outlook, targeting annual sales of $73–$75 billion over 3 years.
Valuation Changes
Summary of Valuation Changes for Performance Food Group
- The Consensus Analyst Price Target has risen from $111.55 to $117.36.
- The Consensus Revenue Growth forecasts for Performance Food Group has fallen slightly from 7.9% per annum to 7.6% per annum.
- The Net Profit Margin for Performance Food Group has risen slightly from 1.09% to 1.11%.
Disclaimer
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