TPR: Multi-Year Buybacks And Fiscal 2028 Plans Will Drive Long-Term Upside

The analyst consensus price target for Tapestry was modestly reduced by approximately $0.79 to $121.68. Analysts cited more conservative growth and discount rate assumptions as the reason, despite recent upward revisions across the sector following positive industry conferences and updated long-term guidance.

Analyst Commentary

Recent updates from major brokers and leading research firms highlight a mixture of optimism and caution regarding Tapestry's future prospects. Many price targets have been raised, reflecting evolving perspectives based on the company’s long-term plans, recent conference takeaways, and updated guidance. The commentary below summarizes both the bullish and bearish takeaways from these updates.

• Bullish analysts point to upward-revised price targets, signaling confidence in valuation upside as Tapestry executes its multi-year growth plans and introduces ambitious financial targets through fiscal 2028.
• Recent conferences and the company’s analyst day reinforced belief in brand momentum. Continued upside is projected for earnings per share over the next twelve months and beyond.
• Tapestry's guidance for a low-teens total stock return from FY26 to FY28, as well as plans for further buybacks, store openings, and tariff mitigation, were received positively and prompted higher long-term EPS estimates.
• The Coach brand is expected to deliver several more quarters of outsized growth, supported by ongoing secular tailwinds within handbags and an improving retail environment.

• Some bearish analysts trimmed top pick status due to valuation concerns and foresee tougher year-over-year comparisons for Coach in North America. This could potentially limit margin expansion.
• Despite guidance upgrades, ongoing tariff headwinds and macroeconomic pressures could weigh on earnings and dampen the pace of profit growth in future periods.
• While the long-term outlook remains constructive, the absence of a major near-term catalyst has prompted a more neutral stance from some observers. This suggests the stock may appreciate gradually rather than deliver rapid outperformance.
• Rising expectations have led to more conservative growth and discount rate assumptions. This has added caution to headline optimism around new financial targets.

What's in the News

• Tapestry has completed the repurchase of 2,410,393 shares, representing 1.16% of outstanding shares for $261.6 million as part of its ongoing buyback program, finalized under the tranche announced in September 2025 (Key Developments).
• The company also finalized the repurchase of 2,309,088 shares, amounting to 1.11% for $238.39 million, completing 8.62% of shares repurchased under its May 2022 buyback program (Key Developments).
• The Board of Directors authorized a new share buyback plan in September 2025, allowing for up to $3 billion in repurchases through fiscal year 2028. This plan will be funded by robust free cash flow (Key Developments).
• Coach debuted its Spring 2026 collection at a New York City runway show, spotlighting innovative uses of suede, nappa, and repurposed denim, as well as playful knitwear and accessories inspired by American style (Key Developments).
• Coach celebrates the publication of "BAG MAN: The Story Behind the Improbable Rise of Coach" by former CEO Lew Frankfort, reflecting on the brand's growth into a global leader in accessible luxury (Key Developments).

Valuation Changes

• Consensus Analyst Price Target: Lowered slightly, decreasing from $122.47 to $121.68.
• Discount Rate: Increased from 8.85% to 9.11%, reflecting a more cautious risk assessment.
• Revenue Growth: Trimmed from 4.04% to 3.47%, indicating more moderate sales expectations.
• Net Profit Margin: Marginally reduced from 16.79% to 16.77%.
• Future P/E: Increased from 19.90x to 23.26x, suggesting higher valuation relative to projected earnings.