Update shared on 19 Dec 2025
Fair value Decreased 2.20%Analysts have modestly reduced their price target on Tri Pointe Homes to approximately $37.75 from about $38.60, citing slightly higher discount rate assumptions and softer profit margin expectations, partially offset by an improved revenue growth outlook and a marginally higher future earnings multiple.
What's in the News
- Tri Pointe Homes Raleigh division has broken ground on the 8,000 square foot Altis at Serenity clubhouse, the centerpiece of its first 55+ lifestyle community in Fuquay Varina, with opening targeted for fall 2026 and extensive indoor and outdoor resort style amenities planned (Key Developments).
- Altis at Serenity will add 425 active adult homes to the 550 acre Serenity master planned community, offering nine floor plans across three home series, with 2 to 4 bedrooms, 2 to 4.5 bathrooms, and 2 bay garages, further expanding Tri Pointe's presence in the active adult segment (Key Developments).
- Tri Pointe Homes plans to begin sales on September 27 at McCormick Trails in Port Orchard, introducing 30 single family homes sized 2,809 to 3,311 square feet with four to five bedrooms, flexible layouts, and farmhouse inspired exteriors in a forested setting (Key Developments).
- Homes at McCormick Trails will feature integrated HomeSmart technology, abundant storage, and access to extensive trail networks, parks, and future retail, with special closing cost incentives of up to $5,000 for active duty military and veterans when using Tri Pointe Connect (Key Developments).
- Between July 1 and September 30, 2025, Tri Pointe Homes repurchased 1,516,766 shares for $50.9 million, completing a total buyback of 6,975,460 shares, or 7.71 percent of shares outstanding, under the program announced on December 18, 2024 (Key Developments).
Valuation Changes
- Consensus Analyst Price Target has edged down slightly to about $37.75 from roughly $38.60 per share.
- Discount Rate has risen modestly to around 9.61 percent from approximately 9.24 percent, reflecting a slightly higher perceived risk profile.
- Revenue Growth outlook has improved, with the projected year over year decline narrowing to about 4.8 percent from roughly 7.5 percent previously.
- Net Profit Margin expectation has eased slightly to around 5.6 percent from about 5.9 percent.
- Future P/E multiple has increased marginally to roughly 19.3x from about 18.8x, indicating a slightly higher valuation placed on expected earnings.
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