Update shared on27 Aug 2025
Fair value Increased 4.72%Toll Brothers’ price target was revised upward to $149.81, driven by stronger-than-expected Q3 earnings, robust community growth, and improving margin outlook, with analysts citing attractive valuation and luxury segment resilience as key supporting factors.
Analyst Commentary
- Fiscal Q3 earnings beat and maintenance of full-year guidance, indicating operational strength and improved visibility.
- Raised estimates due to higher community count growth, supporting the outlook for continued revenue expansion.
- Attractive relative valuation compared to other homebuilders, motivating upward price target revisions among bullish analysts.
- Encouraging trends in average sales prices and resilience of the luxury segment, despite softer order growth and a shrinking backlog flagged by bearish analysts.
- Improved margin stability and a more favorable macroeconomic environment, aided by the equity market recovery, seen as potential catalysts for upside.
What's in the News
- BofA raised its price target on Toll Brothers to $155 (from $145) with a Buy rating after a strong Q3 earnings beat; Toll maintained most full-year guidance and is expected to benefit from higher community count growth, with valuation seen as attractive relative to peers (Periodicals, 2025-08-21).
- Toll Brothers launched or announced numerous new luxury communities and model homes across the U.S.—notably in Georgia, California, Texas, and several high-demand metro regions—expanding its footprint in single-family, townhome, and active-adult segments, often emphasizing resort-style amenities, high personalization options via its Design Studio, and proximity to quality schools (Key Developments, Jul-Aug 2025).
- The company updated FY2025 operating guidance, projecting Q4 deliveries of 3,350 units and full-year deliveries of 11,200 homes, reflecting robust demand and healthy backlog (Key Developments, 2025-08-19).
- Toll Brothers completed substantial share buybacks, repurchasing 1.8 million shares for $201.4 million in Q3 (8.44% of shares under the buyback announced Dec 2023), signaling management confidence and ongoing capital returns (Key Developments, 2025-08-19).
- CFO succession was announced: Gregg Ziegler, SVP of Investor Relations & Treasurer and a 23-year company veteran, will succeed retiring CFO Marty Connor after FY2025; Connor will serve as a senior advisor during the transition (Key Developments, 2025-07-10).
Valuation Changes
Summary of Valuation Changes for Toll Brothers
- The Consensus Analyst Price Target has risen slightly from $143.06 to $149.81.
- The Future P/E for Toll Brothers has fallen from 10.36x to 9.68x.
- The Consensus Revenue Growth forecasts for Toll Brothers has risen slightly from 6.1% per annum to 6.3% per annum.
Disclaimer
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