Update shared on28 Aug 2025
Fair value Increased 1.02%Analysts have modestly raised NIKE's price target, citing early signs of sales and margin stabilization as inventories normalize, stronger U.S. product momentum, improving wholesale relationships, and innovation tailwinds, though persisting macro and China-related risks temper the outlook; the consensus target increased slightly to $78.91.
Analyst Commentary
- Bullish analysts cite evidence of sales and margin inflection as near-term inventories normalize, with particular strength returning in core U.S. products like Air Force One and Jordan Retro.
- Recent partnerships and improved wholesale relationships, notably with Amazon and Foot Locker, reinforce Nike's brand ubiquity, market presence, and anticipated re-acceleration in demand.
- Several analysts see Q4 as the trough in revenue and margin declines, forecasting sequential improvement, driven by inventory clean-up, rising holiday orderbooks, and an invigorated innovation pipeline.
- Bearish analysts remain cautious due to ongoing risks from tariffs, China brand headwinds, and management's conservative outlook for FY26, prompting EPS estimate cuts and lower price targets despite improving trends.
- Overall, second derivative momentum and current data point to stabilizing fundamentals, but a return to consistent growth is tempered by persistent macroeconomic uncertainty and near-term margin pressure.
What's in the News
- Nike is replacing Converse CEO Jared Carver with Aaron Cain, a current VP and GM of Nike's global men's business, in an effort to turn around Converse's ongoing sales slump (Bloomberg, 2025-07-10).
- The leadership change at Converse is aimed at reversing a lengthy decline in brand performance, as noted in an internal memo (Bloomberg, 2025-07-10).
- Nike shares rose 1.4% in afternoon trading following the announcement of the new Converse CEO appointment (Bloomberg, 2025-07-10).
- Nike has delayed the launch of its collaborative brand with Kim Kardashian's Skims label due to production issues, with plans still in place to debut products later in the year (Bloomberg, 2025-06-18).
- Uncertainty remains regarding the timing, product range, and availability for the initial NikeSkims release, with no preview expected prior to launch (Bloomberg, 2025-06-18).
Valuation Changes
Summary of Valuation Changes for NIKE
- The Consensus Analyst Price Target remained effectively unchanged, moving only marginally from $78.12 to $78.91.
- The Future P/E for NIKE remained effectively unchanged, moving only marginally from 32.97x to 33.31x.
- The Discount Rate for NIKE remained effectively unchanged, moving only marginally from 8.58% to 8.59%.
Disclaimer
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