NKE: Upcoming Product Refresh and Channel Cleanup Will Drive Performance Recovery

NIKE's analyst price target has been adjusted down to $85 from $90. Analysts anticipate broadly stable revenues but note pressure on gross margins and earnings due to elevated SG&A costs and incremental tariff headwinds.

Analyst Commentary

Recent analyst notes reflect a mix of optimism and caution regarding NIKE's near-term prospects and long-term growth trajectory. The following summarizes key points from both bullish and bearish perspectives gathered from the latest research coverage.

• Bullish Takeaways
  • Bullish analysts continue to raise or maintain high price targets for NIKE. They cite signs of stabilization in revenues, positive inventory trends, and early progress in management's turnaround strategies.
  • Recent quarterly results have often outperformed expectations, which has contributed to increased confidence in the company’s ability to drive sustainable growth and margin recovery.
  • Improving order books, cleaner channel inventories, and indications of favorable risk versus reward are highlighted as signs of execution strength and the potential for a return to stronger performance.
  • There is growing optimism around new product introductions, innovation pipelines, and targeted marketplace resets. These are expected to drive future sales and enhance brand momentum.
• Bearish Takeaways
  • Bearish analysts express caution on gross margin and earnings due to higher SG&A expenses and ongoing tariff headwinds, which are expected to weigh on profitability in the coming quarters.
  • Valuation concerns persist, with some seeing current share levels as still elevated relative to the pace of fundamental improvement and the impact of macro uncertainty.
  • Growth in key segments, particularly in China, remains challenged. Lags in product refreshes and stiffer competition in new growth areas may limit upside.
  • Some believe that medium- to long-term visibility is limited and recommend a wait-and-see approach until more segments of the business are demonstrably reinvigorated.

What's in the News

• Nike plans to cut under 1% of corporate positions as part of a business realignment. The EMEA and Converse units will not be affected (CNBC).
• Nike and Eastside Golf are launching their second "Take Flight" footwear and apparel collection, which features limited-edition products and a major pop-up event in New York City.
• The company completed a buyback tranche by repurchasing over 1.8 million shares between June and August 2025. Nike has now bought back more than 124 million shares since 2022.
• Shareholders approved PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP as Nike's independent auditor for the upcoming fiscal year at the recent annual meeting.

Valuation Changes

• Fair Value: Unchanged at $83.27 per share, indicating a stable assessment of NIKE's intrinsic value.
• Discount Rate: Lowered slightly from 8.70% to 8.69%. This reflects marginally reduced risk or cost of capital expectations.
• Revenue Growth: Held steady at 4.14%, which suggests no change in analysts' near-term growth projections.
• Net Profit Margin: Remained virtually flat at 9.03%. This indicates stable expected profitability.
• Future P/E: Decreased marginally from 33.31x to 33.29x. This shows a slight adjustment in long-term valuation multiples.