Update shared on 20 Nov 2025
Fair value Increased 22%Analysts have raised their fair value price target for Steven Madden from $35.75 to $43.75. They cite improved profit margin expectations and stronger revenue growth projections as the reasons for this adjustment.
Analyst Commentary
Recent analyst actions show a notable increase in confidence in Steven Madden's future prospects. Several firms have raised their price targets and shifted their outlook to more favorable ratings, citing improvements in core financial and operational metrics.
Bullish Takeaways
- Bullish analysts have upgraded Steven Madden to higher ratings, reflecting increased optimism about both profitability and revenue expansion.
- There is consensus that structural improvements in profit margins are underway. Expectations are that margins could rebound toward double digits as operational efficiency gains materialize.
- The company’s ability to turn inventory swiftly is seen as a competitive advantage. This is positioning Steven Madden to benefit from economic recovery trends ahead of industry peers.
- Analysts see meaningful earnings power returning, with the potential for the business to support higher earnings multiples due to the recovery of recently acquired assets and synergies from integration.
Bearish Takeaways
- Bearish analysts note that, despite the recent rally, the stock remains down year-to-date. This reflects ongoing investor caution about consumer demand volatility.
- There are concerns that current margin recovery projections may be optimistic, given lingering industry pressures such as tariffs and input cost fluctuations.
- Some see the current valuation, at roughly 15 times estimated 2026 earnings, as pricing in much of the anticipated turnaround. This may leave less room for upside if growth falters.
- Cautious voices also point to the need for consistent execution to reclaim historical margin highs and warn that setbacks could hinder the recently improved sentiment.
What's in the News
- Steven Madden, Ltd. has completed the repurchase of 37,152,860 shares, representing 42.05% of outstanding shares for $1,290.53 million, as part of the buyback announced in 2005. No shares were repurchased in the most recent tranche covering July 1, 2025 to September 30, 2025 (Company Filing).
- The company issued guidance for the fourth quarter of 2025, anticipating a 27% to 30% revenue increase over the prior year period and forecasting GAAP diluted net income per share in the range of $0.30 to $0.35 (Company Guidance).
Valuation Changes
- Consensus Analyst Price Target has increased from $35.75 to $43.75, reflecting a notable upward revision in fair value estimates.
- Discount Rate has risen slightly to 9.11% from 9.00%, indicating a modest adjustment in risk assumptions.
- Revenue Growth projections have edged higher, moving from 10.99% to 11.25% annually.
- Net Profit Margin estimates have improved significantly, increasing from 8.42% to 11.15%.
- Future P/E ratio expectations have declined to 11.44x from 12.83x, which suggests higher earnings forecasted relative to price.
Disclaimer
AnalystConsensusTarget is a tool utilizing a Large Language Model (LLM) that ingests data on consensus price targets, forecasted revenue and earnings figures, as well as the transcripts of earnings calls to produce qualitative analysis. The narratives produced by AnalystConsensusTarget are general in nature and are based solely on analyst data and publicly-available material published by the respective companies. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in nature. Simply Wall St has no position in the company(s) mentioned. Simply Wall St may provide the securities issuer or related entities with website advertising services for a fee, on an arm's length basis. These relationships have no impact on the way we conduct our business, the content we host, or how our content is served to users. The price targets and estimates used are consensus data, and do not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that AnalystConsensusTarget's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.