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MAT: Digital And Licensing Expansion Will Drive Stronger Long-Term Outlook

Global Middle Class And Digital Play Will Redefine Toy Experiences

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MAT
AnalystHighTarget
Not Invested
Published 24 Apr 2025

Update shared on 14 Dec 2025

Fair value Decreased 3.33%
Previous
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AnalystHighTarget's Fair Value
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1Y
9.5%
7D
1.1%

Analysts have trimmed their price target on Mattel to $29 from $30, citing a higher perceived discount rate and a lower assumed future P/E multiple, which more than offset modestly stronger expectations for revenue growth and profit margins.

What's in the News

  • Mattel reiterated its 2025 guidance, expecting constant currency net sales growth of 1% to 3%, signaling steady underlying demand despite market volatility (company guidance).
  • The company is expanding its digital footprint through a broader collaboration with Roblox, launching new branded experiences such as Monster High and planning additional titles for Barbie, Hot Wheels, Masters of the Universe, and more (Mattel and Roblox announcement).
  • Mattel and Netflix secured a major co-master toy licensing deal for the film KPop Demon Hunters, with Mattel developing a global toy and collectibles line starting in 2026 to tap into fan demand (Netflix licensing announcement).
  • The company continued its capital return program, repurchasing over 11 million shares in the latest quarter for $202 million, bringing total buybacks under the current authorization to more than 42 million shares and $811 million (buyback update).
  • Mattel is extending its core brands with multiple new product collaborations, including Formula 1 themed UNO Elite, expanded Hot Wheels Formula 1 collections, MoMA inspired collectibles, and new Matchbox and American Girl launches (product announcements).

Valuation Changes

  • Fair value was reduced modestly from $30 to $29 per share, reflecting a slightly lower intrinsic valuation.
  • The discount rate increased meaningfully from 7.11% to approximately 7.97%, indicating a higher perceived risk profile or required return.
  • Revenue growth was raised significantly from about 2.4% to roughly 5.2% annually, pointing to stronger expected top line expansion.
  • The net profit margin improved slightly from around 9.68% to about 9.88%, signaling a modestly more optimistic margin outlook.
  • The future P/E was lowered notably from roughly 18.1x to about 15.7x, embedding a more conservative valuation multiple in the model.

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Disclaimer

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