Update shared on 05 Dec 2025
Analysts have modestly raised their price target on JAKKS Pacific to $28.50, reflecting a slightly higher discount rate and updated valuation assumptions, while maintaining stable expectations for revenue growth, profit margins, and future earnings multiples.
What's in the News
- Renews a multi year global partnership with SEGA to remain lead toy partner for the Sonic the Hedgehog franchise through 2029, covering action figures, playsets, vehicles, plush and collectibles (company announcement).
- Launches an exclusive The Wizard of Oz dress up and petite doll collection at Walmart, expanding licensed role play offerings tied to the classic film (company announcement).
- Introduces the Big Kid Shopping Cart as the latest addition to the Target Role Play line, designed for durability and integration with existing Target themed playsets such as Target Checklane and Target Toy Shopping Cart (product announcement).
- Rolls out new Super Mario toys for the holiday season, including the 12 inch Big Bad Bowser figure at Costco, new Spinning Spirit House sets and expanded assortments of 2.5 inch and 4 inch figures across major retailers (product announcement).
- Debuts Disney Darlings, a new interactive baby doll line inspired by Disney characters such as Minnie Mouse, Stitch, Marie and Winnie the Pooh, available at Walmart, Amazon and Target (product announcement).
Valuation Changes
- Fair Value Estimate remains unchanged at $28.50 per share, indicating no revision to the intrinsic value assessment.
- Discount Rate has risen slightly from 7.67 percent to approximately 7.68 percent, reflecting a modestly higher required return.
- Revenue Growth Assumption is effectively unchanged, holding around 3.55 percent over the forecast horizon.
- Net Profit Margin Expectation remains stable at roughly 17.63 percent, signaling no material shift in long term profitability assumptions.
- Future P/E Multiple has increased marginally from about 3.48x to 3.48x, implying a slightly higher valuation multiple applied to forward earnings.
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