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FNKO: Premium Blind Box Expansion Will Drive Stronger Future Earnings Power

Digital Shift And Rising Costs Will Undermine Valuation

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FNKO
AnalystLowTarget
Not Invested
Published 31 Aug 2025

Update shared on 17 Dec 2025

Fair value Increased 40%
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AnalystLowTarget's Fair Value
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1Y
-73.7%
7D
-8.2%

Analysts have raised their price target on Funko by approximately 40 percent, citing improved revenue growth expectations, modestly higher projected profit margins, and a slightly cheaper forward earnings multiple despite a marginally higher discount rate.

What's in the News

  • Launched the new artist driven Premium Blind Box line, debuting the Kiguzoomies and Funko Fun Squad series to expand beyond traditional blind box collectibles (Key Developments)
  • Premium Blind Box products sold out in limited daily quantities at New York Comic Con, signaling strong early demand and fan engagement (Key Developments)
  • Announced plans to grow Premium Blind Box with future collaborations involving internal creative teams and independent artists, with additional products slated for 2026 (Key Developments)
  • Released Kiguzoomies and Funko Fun Squad across Funko.com and major specialty retailers, including Hot Topic, BoxLunch, GameStop, and others (Key Developments)
  • Issued fourth quarter 2025 guidance calling for net sales to increase modestly from the third quarter of 2025 (Key Developments)

Valuation Changes

  • Fair value estimate increased meaningfully from 2.5 to 3.5, reflecting higher projected earnings power.
  • The discount rate rose modestly from 9.83 percent to 10.62 percent, implying a slightly higher perceived risk profile.
  • Revenue growth assumptions were raised notably from about 5.98 percent to 8.30 percent, signaling stronger top line expectations.
  • The net profit margin outlook improved slightly from roughly 5.14 percent to 5.71 percent, indicating modest operating leverage.
  • The future P/E multiple edged down from about 4.30x to 4.01x, suggesting a marginally cheaper forward valuation despite improved fundamentals.

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