TRU: Expanded Buybacks Will Drive Stronger Future Shareholder Returns

Analysts have nudged their price target on TransUnion slightly higher, lifting estimated fair value by about $0.30 per share to $107.25. They are factoring in marginally faster revenue growth and a modestly richer future earnings multiple, despite a slight compression in projected profit margins and discount rate.

What's in the News

• Launched an upgraded Device Risk solution that uses adaptive machine learning, cross session device identification and advanced anomaly detection to improve fraud detection rates by up to 50% and help businesses combat escalating digital fraud costs. (Company announcement)
• Introduced an industry first Credit Washing Solution that applies advanced analytics to identify atypical suppression of charged off accounts, helping lenders flag high risk consumers, optimize credit limits and reduce early charge offs amid a surge in credit washing activity. (Company announcement)
• Announced mortgage credit score pricing and product enhancements centered on VantageScore 4.0 and the TruIQ analytics platform, with the goal of lowering lender costs, increasing competition in mortgage credit scoring and expanding access to credit for underserved consumers. (Company announcement)
• Updated full year 2025 guidance, now expecting revenue growth of 8% to 8.5% to a range of $4.52 billion to $4.54 billion, along with higher net income and EPS. (Company guidance)
• Expanded capital returns by increasing share repurchase authorization to $1 billion and buying back more than 2.2 million shares under the current program. (Company announcement)

Valuation Changes

• The fair value estimate has risen slightly, increasing by $0.30 from $106.95 to $107.25 per share.
• The discount rate has edged down marginally, from 7.74 percent to approximately 7.73 percent, implying a slightly lower required return.
• Revenue growth has been revised up modestly, from about 8.18 percent to roughly 8.52 percent, reflecting a somewhat stronger top line outlook.
• The net profit margin has fallen slightly, easing from around 15.0 percent to about 14.7 percent, suggesting mild pressure on profitability assumptions.
• The future P/E has increased modestly, moving from roughly 30.3x to about 30.7x, indicating a small uplift in the assumed earnings multiple.