Update shared on 03 Dec 2025
Fair value Increased 1.33%The analyst price target for Upwork has inched higher to approximately $22.90 per share, up from about $22.60, as analysts factor in stronger multi year revenue growth and margin expansion expectations following upbeat Investor Day targets and a series of upward Street revisions.
Analyst Commentary
Street research has turned incrementally more constructive on Upwork as recent results and Investor Day targets point to a healthier long term growth and profitability profile.
Bullish and more cautious analysts are framing the story around the sustainability of gross services volume growth, the durability of AI driven benefits, and the execution risk around the companys expanded enterprise and SMB strategies.
Bullish Takeaways
- Bullish analysts highlight that the companys refreshed three year outlook, including double digit revenue and adjusted EBITDA CAGRs, reinforces confidence that current valuation discounts long term growth potential.
- Several price target hikes are being justified by stronger than expected operating performance, with revenue, adjusted EBITDA, and EPS trending above guidance, supporting upside to margin and cash flow assumptions.
- Upworks AI driven product enhancements and workflow automation are increasingly viewed as growth catalysts rather than competitive threats, improving conviction in accelerating platform engagement and GSV.
- The expansion of the full stack enterprise offering, including the Lifted platform, is seen as a key driver of mix shift to higher value customers and a pathway to capture more of the large digital knowledge work market.
Bearish Takeaways
- More cautious analysts note that while GSV appears to be inflecting, the recovery follows several quarters of declines, and any setback in stabilization could pressure the multiple and reset growth expectations.
- There is concern that execution risk around scaling the enterprise and SMB segments, as well as integrating new fee structures, could lead to volatility in near term growth and user behavior.
- Some see AI dynamics as a lingering overhang, warning that if adoption trends or monetization of AI features underperform, it could revive fears of structural disruption and limit valuation expansion.
- A portion of the recent share price strength is viewed as already reflecting improved guidance and Investor Day targets, leaving less room for error if the company falls short of its medium term financial goals.
What's in the News
- Upwork Inc. is being added to the S&P 1000, increasing its visibility and potential ownership among index and institutional investors (Index Constituent Adds).
- The company is also joining the S&P 600 and the S&P 600 Industrials sector index, broadening its representation across small cap and sector focused benchmarks (Index Constituent Adds).
- Upwork will become part of the S&P Composite 1500, integrating it into a major broad market U.S. equity index used by many passive strategies (Index Constituent Adds).
- The company announced plans to open its first international operational hub in Lisbon, Portugal, creating a new base for product development and technical hiring outside the U.S., with the office expected to be fully operational by the fourth quarter of 2026 (Business Expansions).
- Upwork raised its full year 2025 revenue guidance to a range of approximately $782 million to $787 million and provided fourth quarter 2025 revenue guidance of about $193 million to $198 million (Corporate Guidance).
Valuation Changes
- Fair Value: Risen slightly from approximately $22.60 to about $22.90 per share.
- Discount Rate: Fallen marginally from roughly 7.46 percent to about 7.41 percent, indicating a slightly lower perceived risk profile.
- Revenue Growth: Increased significantly from around 5.9 percent to approximately 10.7 percent, reflecting higher multi year growth expectations.
- Net Profit Margin: Improved moderately from about 17.1 percent to roughly 19.0 percent, signaling stronger anticipated profitability.
- Future P/E: Declined meaningfully from roughly 20.7x to about 16.5x, suggesting a lower multiple applied to higher expected earnings.
Disclaimer
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