Update shared on 19 Nov 2025
Fair value Increased 5.61%Upwork's analyst price target has increased from $21.40 to $22.60, reflecting analysts' views that AI-driven momentum and improving Gross Services Volume support a higher valuation.
Analyst Commentary
Following Upwork's latest quarterly results, analyst commentary reflects both optimism and caution regarding the company's prospects and valuation trends.
Bullish Takeaways- Analysts highlight that the introduction of new AI features and the company's agile adaptation to AI-driven changes are supporting stronger operating performance and momentum.
- Recent quarters have seen positive inflection in Gross Services Volume, with acceleration expected in the coming years and a stabilization of previously disrupted categories.
- The launch of Upwork's new enterprise platform, Lifted, is seen as a significant opportunity to expand its enterprise offering and better compete with traditional staffing firms.
- There is continued confidence in multiple near-term catalysts for revenue and GSV growth, including the rollout of a new variable freelancer fee, which are viewed as not dependent on macroeconomic factors.
- Some analysts maintain a more cautious stance, noting that despite recent improvements, Gross Services Volume has only recently shown signs of stabilization after several quarters of declines.
- Concerns remain about the sustainability of growth if AI headwinds persist or re-emerge as a challenge for certain categories on the platform.
- A few observers suggest that Upwork's execution must continue at a high level to translate current momentum into longer-term value creation, especially given heightened competition in the staffing sector.
What's in the News
- Upwork announced plans to open its first international operational hub in Lisbon, Portugal. This marks a milestone in global expansion with a focus on product development and technical hiring outside the U.S. The office is set to be operational by Q4 2026, and hiring has already begun (Key Developments).
- The company raised its earnings guidance for the full year 2025 and now projects revenue between $782 million and $787 million (Key Developments).
- Upwork issued new earnings guidance for the fourth quarter of 2025, expecting revenue between $193 million and $198 million (Key Developments).
- Upwork announced a $100 million share repurchase program with no expiration date, as authorized by the Board of Directors (Key Developments).
- The company held a recent Analyst/Investor Day, offering updates to investors and analysts (Key Developments).
Valuation Changes
- Consensus Analyst Price Target has risen from $21.40 to $22.60, reflecting a modest increase in projected fair value for Upwork shares.
- Discount Rate has increased slightly, from 7.28 percent to 7.46 percent, indicating a small uptick in perceived risk or required return by analysts.
- Revenue Growth expectations are up marginally, from 5.79 percent to 5.92 percent.
- Net Profit Margin projection has edged down from 17.18 percent to 17.12 percent, suggesting slightly lower profitability expectations.
- Future P/E multiple has declined from 21.12x to 20.65x, reflecting a minor decrease in forward earnings valuation.
Disclaimer
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