SPXC: Durable HVAC And Defense Backlog Will Support Post-Offering Recovery

We modestly lift our SPX Technologies price target by $0 to $230.50, as analysts highlight solid long term backlog support, durable HVAC and defense trends, and expectations that recent equity offering related weakness will prove temporary, even as some see the current valuation as elevated.

Analyst Commentary

Recent Street research reflects a generally constructive view on SPX Technologies' long term growth profile, tempered by concerns around valuation and near term dilution from the recent equity offering.

Bullish Takeaways

• Bullish analysts highlight SPX's exposure to multiple durable secular trends in advanced cooling, HVAC, and defense technology as a foundation for sustained top line expansion.
• Solid backlog visibility, including support for fiscal 2026 growth, is seen as enhancing confidence in the company’s multi year revenue pipeline and underpinning forward estimates.
• Several bullish analysts expect the share price pullback following the $500M equity raise to be temporary, viewing the dislocation as an opportunity to add exposure at more attractive levels.
• SPX is viewed as well positioned for profitable growth, with some forecasts calling for double digit earnings and cash flow growth over the foreseeable future, supporting the case for multiple resilience.

Bearish Takeaways

• Bearish analysts point to SPX’s current valuation as elevated relative to peers and historical averages, which may limit near term multiple expansion even if the company executes well on fundamentals.
• There is caution around the initial dilution from the equity offering, with some investors still assessing the timing and scale of returns on the newly raised capital.
• Uncertainty around the ultimate uses of proceeds and the timeline to offset the dilution gap is cited as a risk to near term share performance, particularly if capital deployment is slower than anticipated.
• While long term trends are recognized as favorable, more cautious analysts prefer to wait for a better entry point that more fully reflects execution risk and the current premium valuation.

What's in the News

• SPX Technologies reported that, from June 29, 2025 to September 27, 2025, it repurchased 0 shares for $0 million, completing a previously announced buyback program from August 2, 2024 (company filing).
• Over the same June 29, 2025 to September 27, 2025 period, the company also reported 0 shares repurchased for $0 million under a separate buyback program announced on August 1, 2025. This indicates no capital deployment to share repurchases during the quarter (company filing).

Valuation Changes

• Fair Value Estimate: unchanged at $230.50 per share, indicating no change in the base intrinsic value assessment.
• Discount Rate: risen slightly from 8.36% to approximately 8.39%, reflecting a modest uptick in the assumed cost of capital.
• Revenue Growth: effectively unchanged at about 8.83%, suggesting stable long term topline growth expectations.
• Net Profit Margin: effectively unchanged at roughly 14.22%, maintaining prior assumptions for long run profitability.
• Future P/E: risen slightly from about 45.17x to 45.21x, implying a marginally higher valuation multiple embedded in the model.