Analysts have raised SiteOne Landscape Supply’s fair value estimate by $2.50 to $156.40, citing stronger than expected revenue growth and resilient gross margins despite ongoing macroeconomic headwinds.

Analyst Commentary

Recent Street research reflects a blend of optimism and caution regarding SiteOne Landscape Supply’s outlook. Analysts have reviewed company performance and external market trends to inform their latest views on the stock’s valuation and prospects.

• Bullish analysts highlight ongoing growth and margin expansion initiatives, such as improving underperforming branches and the integration of recent acquisitions. These efforts are supporting improved operating leverage for the company.
• Market share gains have been described as elevated, attributed in part to the successful deployment of the sales force via an upgraded CRM system, as well as the introduction of new products and emphasis on digital sales growth.
• Despite persistent macroeconomic challenges in the residential and renovation markets, revenue growth and gross margins have proven resilient and have outpaced expectations in recent quarters.
• Price targets have been increased due to the company’s positive full-year outlook and consistent execution amid commodity deflation headwinds. This suggests that analysts believe SiteOne is well positioned for accelerated growth in fiscal 2025 and 2026.

• Bearish analysts maintain a cautious stance regarding the broader macroeconomic environment, particularly as softer demand in new residential and renovation markets may limit near-term upside.
• There is continued scrutiny on whether the margin improvements and growth initiatives will sustain momentum if commodity prices remain deflated or competitive pressures intensify.
• Some caution persists about the successful integration of large acquisitions, such as Pioneer, and whether these will ultimately achieve margin parity with the rest of the business.
• Concerns remain about the potential for volatility in gross margins if pricing power diminishes or cost pressures increase unexpectedly over the next quarters.

What's in the News

• SiteOne Landscape Supply announced updated earnings guidance for the fourth quarter of 2025, anticipating modestly positive sales volume and low single-digit organic daily sales growth (Key Developments).
• Between June 30, 2025 and September 28, 2025, the company reported no additional share repurchases, concluding its buyback program with a total of 1,162,162 shares repurchased for $145.74 million since November 2022 (Key Developments).
• Chief Financial Officer John Guthrie will retire at the end of 2025. Eric Elema, currently Vice President, Finance and Corporate Controller, will succeed him as CFO effective January 1, 2026. Mr. Guthrie will stay on as senior advisor to support the transition (Key Developments).

Valuation Changes

• The Fair Value Estimate has risen slightly from $153.90 to $156.40, reflecting increased confidence in the company’s outlook.
• The Discount Rate has decreased modestly from 8.28% to 8.17%, suggesting a minor reduction in perceived risk.
• Revenue Growth projections have increased from 4.81% to 5.83%, indicating upgraded expectations for future sales expansion.
• Net Profit Margin estimates have edged down marginally from 4.96% to 4.94%.
• The Future P/E multiple has declined from 31.84x to 30.39x, implying a slightly more conservative valuation of anticipated earnings.