Update shared on25 Aug 2025
Fair value Decreased 5.28%Analysts lowered Redwire’s price target from $19.06 to $18.06 following a challenging Q2, management’s reduced guidance—including EBITDA forecast withdrawal—and revised estimates, though some now view shares as undervalued.
Analyst Commentary
- Analysts noted a challenging Q2 quarter and subsequent management guidance lowering, including a withdrawal of prior Adjusted EBITDA forecasts.
- Revised revenue expectations, with management projecting midpoint revenues of $500M.
- Price targets were reduced to reflect more conservative estimates and near-term operational headwinds.
- Despite the downward adjustments, bullish analysts highlight that shares now appear undervalued and present a buying opportunity following the post-earnings selloff.
- 2026 financial estimates were decreased to align with the company's recent performance and updated outlook.
What's in the News
- Redwire announced Acorn 2.0, an AI-driven modeling and simulation software, with initial deployments and a contract win from DeepSat for satellite constellation design.
- New entity SpaceMD was launched to commercialize pharmaceutical seed crystals grown in orbit, entering a licensing deal with ExesaLibero Pharma for drug development targeting bone disease.
- Revenue guidance for 2025 was set at $385-445 million, or $470-530 million on a pro forma basis with Edge Autonomy integration.
- The company completed integration of Hammerhead spacecraft platforms for two European Space Agency missions and delivered the onboard computer for ESA’s Comet Interceptor, solidifying its role as a prime contractor on key European space projects.
- Redwire was dropped from several Russell value-focused indices but was added to the S&P Aerospace & Defense Select Industry Index.
Valuation Changes
Summary of Valuation Changes for Redwire
- The Consensus Analyst Price Target has fallen from $19.06 to $18.06.
- The Future P/E for Redwire has fallen from 58.31x to 54.67x.
- The Consensus Revenue Growth forecasts for Redwire remained effectively unchanged, moving only marginally from 49.8% per annum to 50.3% per annum.
Disclaimer
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