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OC: Shares Will Rise As Dividend And Buybacks Offset Impairment

Analysts Lower Owens Corning Price Target as Valuation Slips Amid New Developments

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AnalystConsensusTarget
Not Invested
Published 22 Aug 2024

Update shared on 19 Dec 2025

Fair value Decreased 0.044%
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AnalystConsensusTarget's Fair Value
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1Y
-33.0%
7D
-0.4%

Analysts have nudged their price target on Owens Corning slightly lower to approximately $140.56 from about $140.63, reflecting modestly softer long term revenue and margin assumptions that are only partly offset by a slightly lower discount rate and a marginally higher future valuation multiple.

What's in the News

  • The Board of Directors approved a 15% increase in the quarterly cash dividend to $0.79 per share, payable January 21, 2026, to shareholders of record on January 5, 2026 (company announcement).
  • The company recorded an unaudited goodwill impairment charge of $780 million for the third quarter ended September 30, 2025, significantly impacting reported earnings (company filing).
  • The company issued fourth quarter 2025 guidance, expecting revenue from continuing operations to decline in the mid to high teens to approximately $2.1 billion to $2.2 billion (company guidance).
  • The company repurchased 1,449,267 shares, or about 1.73% of shares outstanding, for $220.02 million during the third quarter of 2025, completing 7,403,956 shares repurchased under the December 2, 2022, buyback program (company disclosure).
  • The company partnered with Renoworks Software to launch the Design EyeQ Roofing Visualizer, a new AI powered digital tool to help homeowners customize and preview Owens Corning roofing products online (Renoworks press release).

Valuation Changes

  • Fair Value Estimate: edged down slightly to approximately $140.56 from about $140.63 per share, reflecting a marginal reduction in intrinsic value.
  • Discount Rate: decreased slightly to about 9.91% from roughly 9.94%, modestly lowering the hurdle rate applied in the valuation model.
  • Revenue Growth: projected annual decline widened modestly to around 3.56% from about 3.29%, signaling a slightly more cautious top line outlook.
  • Net Profit Margin: trimmed marginally to about 19.58% from roughly 19.61%, incorporating a small reduction in expected profitability.
  • Future P/E: increased slightly to approximately 6.56x from about 6.51x, implying a modestly higher assumed valuation multiple on future earnings.

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