MOG.A: Aircraft Demand And FY26 Outlook Will Support Balanced Upside-Risk Profile

Analysts have nudged their price target on Moog higher to about $243, reflecting stronger long term revenue growth expectations, a modestly richer future earnings multiple, and confidence in the company’s above consensus FY26 outlook despite margin headwinds and only moderate improvement in free cash flow conversion.

Analyst Commentary

Recent Street research reflects a generally constructive stance on Moog, with higher price targets anchored in improving growth visibility and a more confident multi year earnings outlook. Bullish analysts are emphasizing the upside in revenue and EPS through FY26, while still flagging execution risks around margins and cash conversion that could influence how much of that upside is ultimately reflected in the valuation.

Bullish Takeaways

• Bullish analysts point to Q4 results that exceeded expectations across revenue and earnings, reinforcing confidence that management can deliver on an above consensus FY26 revenue and EPS trajectory.
• Upside to long term growth is tied to robust demand in commercial aerospace, including MAX exposed platforms and resilient aftermarket trends, which support a premium to historical revenue growth assumptions.
• The stock’s discounted multiple and recent underperformance are seen as offering an attractive entry point, especially if Moog can execute on its FY26 outlook and narrow the gap between current valuation and raised price targets.
• Stronger aircraft OEM production and sustained passenger travel are expected to underpin backlog and visibility. This is seen as helping to de risk near term execution and potentially support further multiple expansion if delivery schedules hold.

Bearish Takeaways

• Bearish analysts remain focused on the 70 bps tariff headwind to consolidated operating margins. They warn that even with solid top line growth, persistent cost pressures could cap upside to earnings and limit re rating potential.
• Free cash flow conversion projected at about 60 percent in FY26, still meaningfully below the long term 75 percent to 100 percent target, raises questions about capital efficiency and the timing of balance sheet driven shareholder returns.
• Defense exposure is viewed as more nuanced, with budget uncertainty and potential government shutdown related disruption posing a risk to backlog timing and segment level profitability through FY26.
• Some investors worry that a portion of the positive FY26 outlook is already embedded in raised targets. This leaves Moog vulnerable to any slip in execution on production ramps, supply chain normalization, or aftermarket growth.

What's in the News

• Moog provided fiscal 2026 guidance, targeting net sales of $4.2 billion and diluted EPS of $10, reinforcing management’s growth outlook relative to consensus expectations and supporting recent upward revisions to analyst models (company guidance).
• The company will transition its independent auditor from EY to KPMG following completion of EY’s audit of fiscal 2025 results, a governance shift that investors will monitor for any changes in reporting or audit tone (auditor change filing).
• Moog confirmed completion of its previously authorized share repurchase program, having bought back approximately 1.34 million shares for $163.83 million since the 2020 authorization, with no additional shares repurchased in the most recent quarter (buyback update).
• Management reiterated that capital deployment will prioritize organic growth while pursuing targeted acquisitions, particularly in higher return Defense opportunities in regions such as Australia and Europe, highlighting ongoing M&A optionality (management commentary on acquisitions).

Valuation Changes

• Fair Value Estimate has risen modestly from $228.75 to $243.00, reflecting a higher long term outlook for the business.
• Discount Rate has increased slightly from 7.90 percent to about 8.04 percent, incorporating a marginally higher perceived risk profile.
• Revenue Growth has edged higher from roughly 5.52 percent to about 5.85 percent, indicating a modestly stronger long term growth assumption.
• Net Profit Margin has declined slightly from about 9.68 percent to roughly 9.16 percent, acknowledging some anticipated margin pressure.
• Future P/E Multiple has risen from about 21.0x to roughly 22.7x, implying a somewhat richer valuation on forward earnings.