Analysts Raise Moog Price Target Amid Strong Aerospace Outlook and Updated Valuation Metrics
Analysts have raised their price target for Moog, increasing it from $222.50 to $228.75. They cited stronger sentiment in the aerospace segment and ongoing resilient demand for aftermarket services, even though there is some uncertainty around defense outlooks.
Analyst Commentary
Recent research notes highlight a mix of optimism and caution surrounding Moog's outlook. Analysts have identified several areas of strength, as well as factors to watch as the company heads into its next earnings season.
Bullish Takeaways
- Rising aircraft original equipment manufacturer production sentiment is viewed positively. Moog is seen as well positioned as a supplier exposed to favorable aerospace trends.
- Aftermarket demand continues to show resilience, supported by ongoing recovery in passenger travel, increased engine shop visits, and supply chain constraints impacting new aircraft deliveries.
- Bullish analysts anticipate Moog may benefit from continued strength in aerospace activity, which supports higher price targets and reinforces growth potential in the segment.
- Execution on long-term contracts and exposure to key aircraft programs are viewed as supportive of sustainable revenue streams and potential valuation upside.
Bearish Takeaways
- The outlook in the Defense segment is described as more uncertain, particularly with potential impacts related to a possible government shutdown and changes in fiscal year budget allocations.
- Some analysts caution that supply chain challenges could persist. These challenges may pose execution risks for both OEM and aftermarket segments if disruptions increase.
- Valuation sensitivity is noted if growth momentum in commercial aerospace slows or if macroeconomic uncertainty leads to softer demand.
What's in the News
- Moog will transition from Ernst & Young LLP to KPMG LLP as its independent registered public accounting firm for the fiscal year ending October 3, 2026. This decision follows a competitive selection process (Key Developments).
- For the fiscal year 2025, Moog revised its earnings guidance, increasing revenue expectations to $3.8 billion but lowering diluted net earnings per share to $7.44, compared to the earlier guidance of $7.89 (Key Developments).
- The company has completed the repurchase of 1,339,893 shares totaling $163.83 million, representing 4.19% of shares outstanding, under its ongoing buyback program as of June 28, 2025 (Key Developments).
Valuation Changes
- Consensus Analyst Price Target has risen slightly from $222.50 to $228.75, reflecting increased confidence in Moog's prospects.
- Discount Rate has edged up marginally from 8.09% to 8.13%, indicating a modest increase in perceived investment risk.
- Revenue Growth projection has fallen moderately from 5.65% to 5.52%, suggesting a more tempered outlook for top-line expansion.
- Net Profit Margin estimate has improved from 9.12% to 9.68%, signaling expectations for greater earnings efficiency.
- Future P/E ratio forecast has decreased from 21.0x to 20.4x, pointing to a slightly lower valuation multiple on projected earnings.
Disclaimer
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