LNN: Future Returns Will Depend On Buybacks Amid Irrigation Headwinds

Analysts have trimmed their price target on Lindsay to $122 from $136, reflecting concerns about ongoing domestic irrigation headwinds and tougher FY26 comparisons in international irrigation and infrastructure following large FY25 projects.

Analyst Commentary

Bullish Takeaways

• Bullish analysts highlight that the recent top line beat suggests underlying demand for Lindsay's products remains resilient despite macro and sector-specific pressures.
• Execution on large FY25 international irrigation and infrastructure projects is viewed as a near term growth driver that can support revenue visibility and cash generation.
• Some see the reset price target as better aligning valuation with current fundamentals, potentially reducing downside risk if management can stabilize margins.
• Strength in select international markets is seen as a structural growth opportunity that could offset softer domestic trends over the medium term.

Bearish Takeaways

• Bearish analysts point to the EPS miss as evidence that profitability is lagging revenue growth, raising concerns about cost control and margin execution.
• Persistent domestic irrigation headwinds are seen as a constraint on near term earnings power and a key reason for a more cautious valuation framework.
• Difficult FY26 comparisons in international irrigation and infrastructure following large FY25 projects could slow reported growth and weigh on the stock's multiple.
• The maintained neutral rating reflects skepticism that management can quickly reaccelerate earnings growth, limiting potential upside in the shares at current levels.

What's in the News

• Lindsay entered a major supply agreement to provide Zimmatic irrigation systems and FieldNET remote management technology across the MENA region, a project expected to generate about $80 million in revenue with roughly $70 million recognized in fiscal 2026 (company announcement).
• The Board of Directors authorized a new share repurchase program allowing the company to buy back up to $150 million of common stock with no expiration date (buyback transaction announcement).
• Between September 1, 2025 and November 3, 2025, Lindsay repurchased 224,420 shares for $29.81 million, bringing total repurchases under the 2014 program to 2,888,941 shares, or 24.7 percent of shares, for $250 million (buyback tranche update).
• From June 1, 2025 to August 31, 2025, the company repurchased 63,097 shares for $8.77 million, increasing cumulative buybacks under the 2014 authorization to 2,664,521 shares, or 22.62 percent of shares, for $220.19 million (buyback tranche update).
• Lindsay appointed Sam Hinrichsen as incoming Chief Financial Officer effective January 1, 2026, succeeding retiring CFO Brian Ketcham, with Hinrichsen joining as Senior Vice President on November 3, 2025 (executive changes).

Valuation Changes

• Fair Value: Unchanged at $127, indicating no revision to the intrinsic value estimate.
• Discount Rate: Fell slightly from 8.59 percent to about 8.55 percent, reflecting a modestly lower required return.
• Revenue Growth: Effectively unchanged at about 4.29 percent, signaling no material shift in top line growth assumptions.
• Net Profit Margin: Essentially flat at about 11.69 percent, with only a negligible model adjustment.
• Future P/E: Edged down slightly from about 18.13x to 18.11x, implying a marginally lower valuation multiple on forward earnings.