Update shared on08 Oct 2025
Fair value Increased 3.57%Lockheed Martin's analyst price target increased modestly from $476.67 to $493.71. This reflects a mix of optimism toward global defense budgets and ongoing caution around program charges and execution risks, according to analysts.
Analyst Commentary
Recent analyst research on Lockheed Martin has highlighted a mix of optimism around defense industry tailwinds and concern regarding execution risks and financial charges. The following summarizes key bullish and bearish takeaways drawn from recent updates:
Bullish Takeaways- Bullish analysts see Lockheed Martin benefiting from accelerating global defense budgets, contributing to expectations of long-term growth opportunities.
- Some price target increases reflect confidence that valuation has become attractive relative to industry peers, especially as sentiment remains subdued.
- Certain analysts anticipate that successful resolution of recent challenges could serve as a catalyst for improved stock performance in coming quarters.
- Upgrades in analyst ratings indicate increased conviction in Lockheed's potential to outperform, as broader sector trends remain constructive.
- Multiple program charges of $1.8 billion in the recent quarter surprised the market and raised concerns about execution quality.
- Bearish analysts flag the possibility of additional charges ahead, which may weigh on free cash flow and make multi-year growth targets more difficult to achieve.
- Overhangs related to the F-35 program and ongoing execution challenges are expected to keep shares in a limited range in the near term.
- Concerns about limited upward estimate revisions suggest the path to near-term share price appreciation may be constrained.
What's in the News
- The Pentagon is urging missile suppliers, including Lockheed Martin, to significantly boost missile production due to concerns about potential conflict, with requests to double or even quadruple output. (The Wall Street Journal)
- Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has called an urgent meeting of the U.S. military's top commanders at a Virginia Marine Corps base, highlighting heightened defense sector activity. (The Washington Post)
- Turkey is planning to buy hundreds of Lockheed Martin fighter jets and Boeing airliners and is negotiating production deals worth more than $10 billion, with approval pending U.S. administration review. (Bloomberg)
- China has begun limiting the supply of critical minerals to Western defense manufacturers such as Lockheed Martin, disrupting production and prompting a global search for alternative sources. (The Wall Street Journal)
- Lockheed Martin is exploring the production of its missiles in Germany through collaboration with Rheinmetall, aiming to strengthen its European manufacturing base. (Reuters)
Valuation Changes
- Consensus Analyst Price Target has risen slightly from $476.67 to $493.71, reflecting modest upward adjustments.
- Discount Rate has decreased marginally from 8.06% to 8.06%, indicating minimal change in perceived risk or required return.
- Revenue Growth expectations have fallen moderately, from 4.08% to 3.87%.
- Net Profit Margin has edged up, increasing from 8.74% to 8.79%.
- Future P/E ratio has increased from 18.94x to 19.64x, indicating higher anticipated earnings multiples.
Disclaimer
AnalystConsensusTarget is a tool utilizing a Large Language Model (LLM) that ingests data on consensus price targets, forecasted revenue and earnings figures, as well as the transcripts of earnings calls to produce qualitative analysis. The narratives produced by AnalystConsensusTarget are general in nature and are based solely on analyst data and publicly-available material published by the respective companies. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in nature. Simply Wall St has no position in the company(s) mentioned. Simply Wall St may provide the securities issuer or related entities with website advertising services for a fee, on an arm's length basis. These relationships have no impact on the way we conduct our business, the content we host, or how our content is served to users. The price targets and estimates used are consensus data, and do not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that AnalystConsensusTarget's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.