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JBI: Share Repurchases Will Support Future Upside Despite Lower 2025 EBIT Guidance

Update shared on 11 Dec 2025

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Analysts have nudged their price target for Janus International Group slightly higher to reflect a modestly richer forward earnings multiple, even though assumptions for fair value, discount rate, revenue growth, and profit margin remain effectively unchanged.

What's in the News

  • Updated full year 2025 guidance keeps the revenue target at $870 million to $880 million and lowers expected EBIT by about 10% at the midpoint (company guidance).
  • Fourth quarter 2025 earnings outlook calls for revenue largely in line with the third quarter, with the midpoint of prior guidance unchanged (company guidance).
  • Share repurchase program update shows 81,927 shares bought between June 29 and September 27, 2025, bringing total buybacks under the February 28, 2024 authorization to 9,066,503 shares, or 6.3% of shares, for $94.59 million (company disclosure).

Valuation Changes

  • Fair Value Estimate remains unchanged at 9.3, indicating no reassessment of intrinsic value per share.
  • Discount Rate has risen slightly from 10.20 percent to about 10.23 percent, reflecting a marginally higher required return.
  • Revenue Growth is effectively unchanged at around 1.39 percent, with only immaterial rounding differences.
  • Net Profit Margin is stable at roughly 10.31 percent, indicating no meaningful change in long term profitability expectations.
  • Future P/E has risen slightly from about 17.45x to 17.47x, implying a modestly richer multiple applied to forward earnings.

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