Update shared on26 Sep 2025
Fair value Increased 5.21%Analysts have raised Ferguson Enterprises’ price target from $237.53 to $249.89, citing strong non-residential growth, consistent market share gains, and robust Q4 results that boost confidence in forward estimates and margin recovery despite ongoing residential sector headwinds.
Analyst Commentary
- Strong organic growth led by robust performance in non-residential segments and positive pricing/inflation tailwinds, offsetting muted residential sector activity.
- Consistent market share gains across multiple end-markets, with particular strength in large capital project bidding, shipment activity, and waterworks/infrastructure demand.
- Q4 results significantly exceeded consensus on revenue and profit, prompting revised upward guidance and increased analyst confidence in forward estimates.
- Balanced end-market exposure and resilient business model provide downside protection against ongoing headwinds in residential new build, RMI, and HVAC sectors.
- Upward valuation adjustments reflect increased conviction in margin recovery, a moat-like competitive position, and expectations of a broader industry upturn approaching 2026.
What's in the News
- Board amended bylaws to change the company's fiscal year-end to December 31.
- Provided earnings guidance for 2025, expecting mid-single digit net sales growth.
- Repurchased 5 million shares for $189 million, completing a total buyback of 30.87 million shares (14.81% of shares) for $4.04 billion.
- Fiscal year-end changed from July 31 to December 31, with a five-month transition period leading to calendar year reporting starting January 1, 2026.
- Added to Russell 1000 Value-Defensive, Russell 1000 Defensive, and Russell 1000 Growth-Defensive indices.
Valuation Changes
Summary of Valuation Changes for Ferguson Enterprises
- The Consensus Analyst Price Target has risen from $237.53 to $249.89.
- The Consensus Revenue Growth forecasts for Ferguson Enterprises has significantly fallen from 6.8% per annum to 5.4% per annum.
- The Future P/E for Ferguson Enterprises has risen from 23.47x to 25.69x.
Disclaimer
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