Update shared on 03 Dec 2025
Fair value Increased 1.03%Analysts have nudged their price target on GrafTech International slightly higher to approximately $14.75 from about $14.60 per share, citing improving profit margin expectations and a modestly richer future earnings multiple, despite tempering their revenue growth outlook.
What's in the News
- Completed share repurchase program totaling 5.74 million shares, or about 22% of outstanding stock, for roughly $51 million under the 2021 authorization (company filing)
- Reported third quarter 2025 production volume of 26.6 MT, down from 29.4 MT a year earlier; nine month 2025 production rose to 84.5 MT from 72.2 MT, highlighting improved asset utilization over the year to date (company results)
- Raised 2025 sales volume outlook to an 8 to 10% year over year increase, and signaled a willingness to walk away from low margin business to protect profitability (company guidance)
- Now targets about a 10% year over year decline in 2025 cash cost of goods sold per MT, compared with prior 7 to 9% guidance, driven by production schedule efficiencies and cost optimization (company guidance)
- Continues to mitigate tariff and trade policy impacts through a flexible global production network and proactive supply chain measures, including shifting volume toward higher priced U.S. markets (company guidance)
Valuation Changes
- Fair Value: raised slightly to about $14.75 per share from roughly $14.60, reflecting modestly improved profitability and valuation assumptions.
- Discount Rate: unchanged at 12.5%, indicating a consistent view of GrafTech International's risk profile and required return.
- Revenue Growth: reduced meaningfully to just under 10% from roughly 12.6%, signaling a more conservative outlook for top line expansion.
- Net Profit Margin: increased modestly to approximately 11.8% from about 11.5%, pointing to incremental efficiency and margin improvement expectations.
- Future P/E: nudged higher to around 6.7x from about 6.3x, implying a slightly richer earnings multiple in the updated valuation framework.
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