CNH Industrial's average analyst price target has been revised downward by $1, now standing at $12. Analysts are adjusting expectations in response to expanded steel and aluminum tariffs, as well as broader sector headwinds.

Analyst Commentary

Analysts have weighed in on the impact of escalating steel and aluminum tariffs and shifting market dynamics for CNH Industrial, leading to a revised outlook for the company's shares and sector peers.

• Some analysts note continued opportunity for upward momentum in industry valuations. There is potential for earnings growth to drive further multiple expansion within the machinery sector.
• Despite the adjustment in estimates, certain bullish analysts maintain that supportive industry fundamentals could result in upside for sector stocks in the coming years, especially as the cycle matures.
• There remains a positive bias around the potential for ongoing operational improvements and efficiency gains. These developments could mitigate some of the tariff-related pressures over the medium term.

• Bearish analysts are cautious about the sustained headwinds from recently expanded tariffs. In particular, tariffs targeting over 400 classes of metal parts and components could result in increased input costs for manufacturers like CNH Industrial.
• Revised tariff structures, including a 50% levy on imported steel and aluminum content, have prompted reductions in price targets and earnings expectations for CNH Industrial and peers.
• There is also concern that ongoing geopolitical risk and country-specific tariffs will continue to pressure margins and impair near-term profitability for the agriculture, construction, and heavy equipment sectors.
• Lowered expectations for sector-wide earnings and subdued demand outlook have made some analysts less constructive on CNH Industrial’s relative performance in the near future.

Valuation Changes

• Fair Value Estimate: Remains unchanged at $14.11, reflecting stable expectations for the company's intrinsic value.
• Discount Rate: Holds steady at 13.28%. This indicates analysts are not adjusting risk assumptions despite recent tariff developments.
• Revenue Growth: Marginally reduced from 1.32% to 1.32%, with only a negligible change in long-term growth projections.
• Net Profit Margin: Remains nearly flat at approximately 8.05%, showing little adjustment to profitability outlook.
• Future P/E Ratio: Essentially unchanged at 17.02x. This suggests valuation multiples are consistent with prior forecasts.