Update shared on08 Oct 2025
Fair value Decreased 1.07%Analysts have modestly lowered their price target for CNH Industrial, trimming it by approximately $0.16 to $14.66. Recent research cites increased tariff headwinds for heavy equipment manufacturers and a more cautious outlook on sector earnings growth.
Analyst Commentary
Analyst sentiment toward CNH Industrial has shifted in recent weeks, as fresh tariff concerns and sector-specific challenges weigh on the stock's outlook. Still, perspectives remain mixed, with both bullish and bearish takeaways emerging from recent research coverage.
Bullish Takeaways
- Some analysts see potential for upward earnings estimate revisions within the machinery group. These views are based on ongoing inventory normalization and possible multiple expansion in the sector.
- Expectations of an improved earnings outlook into 2026 and 2027 persist, particularly as the agriculture and construction end markets move past the recent downturn.
- Despite recent price target reductions, select coverage continues to view CNH Industrial’s underlying valuation as fair. This suggests the longer-term growth story is not fully discounted.
Bearish Takeaways
- Major firms have trimmed their price targets and reduced earnings estimates due to extended destocking cycles and more muted pricing power. This extends a cautious stance on near-term recovery.
- Analysts have highlighted that new steel and aluminum tariffs, especially updates to Section 232, are likely to pressure margins and profitability for heavy equipment makers, including CNH Industrial.
- Broader sector headwinds, such as increased input costs and slower-than-expected market normalization, are expected to create challenges to margin expansion and earnings improvement.
- Valuation concerns have emerged as well, with some regarding the stock price as fairly reflecting the company’s more modest growth prospects in the near term.
What's in the News
- CNH Industrial completed the repurchase of 14,690,610 shares, representing 1.16% of its outstanding shares, under the buyback announced on February 14, 2024. The total value of the repurchase was $161.25 million. (Key Developments)
- The company reaffirmed its full-year 2025 guidance and maintained its previous net sales, EBIT margin, and EPS outlook in the range of $0.50 to $0.70. (Key Developments)
- Oddone Incisa stepped down as group CFO of CNH Industrial in May 2025 after serving since March 2020. He will become CFO at Barilla Group effective September 2025. (Key Developments)
Valuation Changes
- Fair Value: The fair value estimate has edged down slightly, from $14.82 to $14.66 per share.
- Discount Rate: The discount rate remains unchanged at 13.28%.
- Revenue Growth: Forecasted revenue growth has been adjusted lower, decreasing from 1.37% to 1.29%.
- Net Profit Margin: Net profit margin expectations have improved marginally, rising from 8.23% to 8.25%.
- Future P/E: The projected future price-to-earnings ratio has fallen modestly, from 17.48x to 17.29x.
Disclaimer
AnalystConsensusTarget is a tool utilizing a Large Language Model (LLM) that ingests data on consensus price targets, forecasted revenue and earnings figures, as well as the transcripts of earnings calls to produce qualitative analysis. The narratives produced by AnalystConsensusTarget are general in nature and are based solely on analyst data and publicly-available material published by the respective companies. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in nature. Simply Wall St has no position in the company(s) mentioned. Simply Wall St may provide the securities issuer or related entities with website advertising services for a fee, on an arm's length basis. These relationships have no impact on the way we conduct our business, the content we host, or how our content is served to users. The price targets and estimates used are consensus data, and do not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that AnalystConsensusTarget's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.